Monday, September 26th
This past week saw Equities as well as Bitcoin and Ethereum swung as central banks took measures to fight inflation further. BTC and ETH registered moderate losses over the week, with BTC and ETH having traded sideways around the 19,000 mark and 1,300 mark, respectively.
Following last week Fed’s meeting, this week will come with fresh volatility as markets will have their focus on Friday’s data on US personal income and spending for the month of August which will be closely watched by the Fed to measure inflation. In Europe, Friday’s inflation data will be closely watched.
BTC and ETH are regaining today and outperforming US main Equity Markets trading close to flat whereas DXY is trading higher, above the 113 level, following the Fed’s decision to raise rate by 0.75 bps last week and the recent fear surrounding GBP which hit an all-time low against the dollar.
XRP price has been soaring this last week – up 23% from last week – amid rumours of a favourable ruling by the SEC, considering XRP as a digital asset and not a security.
Our portfolio position breakdown has not changed over last week with still around 32% exposure to the market and the rest in cash. We maintained our positions in BTC and a few large-cap coins since the last profits made on a SOL trade.
In the short term, should BTC test the 17,500 levels, we could consider adding funds to our existing long positions as we still have 68% of the AUM in cash.
BTC is trading just above the 19,000 level, losing close to 2% over week and is down 5% this month as last week’s price action kept the price close to 19,000s levels.
The trend is still bearish in the wake of last week’s rate hike from the Fed meeting, backed by still strong US inflation data.
We saw price action break below the Dec 2017 high and the 19,500 area that acted as a major support. Bitcoin hit the $18,150 levels over last week and is now back up at the $19,000 mark. We still see long term support in the $17,500 area – then next support would be 12K/13K.
As mentioned last week, the probability for price action to re-capture the upward channel is very low given the current macro conditions and the Fed’s commitment to bring down inflation.
ETH is trading at levels 3% lower from last week, bringing the MTD performance down to -14%. Last week price action saw ETH trading near the $1,200 mark on Wednesday following the rate increase before recovering in the latter part of the week and consolidating above the $1,300 mark.
We believe ETH could continue on this bearish trend as the current bearish mood around inflation seems to be prevailing. The next support could be the 1,250 mark – which if we pierce below, we could enter a swing trade- and then next support would be the lowest of the year – $900 level.
Equities declined over last week, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq COMP losing –4.6%, -4.9% on Friday. Today, in the absence of strong catalyst, Equities are trading sideways following the Fed’s decision.
DXY (US $ Dollar Index),
DXY was trading upward last week and soared over the weekend as fears around the GBP send the price of the GBPUSD to all-time lows, adding fuel to an already strong dollar.
DXY broke the upward parallel channel and is now trading around the 114 mark.
Following the Fed’s decision to raise interest further last week, bond prices slipped and 10Y US Treasury bond yield has been breaking above the upsloping resistance, creating a third touching point that we will keep monitoring.