BTC and ETH were mixed last week, with BTC trading near $28,000 on Friday, down -1.6% while ETH reached its highest level of the year on April 5 near $1,945 and ended the week up +2.4% near $1,865 from $1,820 the week before.
US Equities drifted lower last week with S&P and Nasdaq closing the Easter holiday-shortened week near 4,105 and 12,087 on Thursday- from 4,110 and 12,220 as markets digested the latest
job data confirming the still strong job openings despite a light revision – 236,000 VS 239,000 expected – for the month of February, reigniting fears of further rate hikes and an economic recession.
US Treasuries yields also edged lower over the week despite investors readjusting their Fed rate hike expectations in the wake of the strong job hiring report. The yields on the 10Y and 2Y Treasury closing near 3.41% and 3.99% from 3.47% and 4.03% the week before with markets currently pricing in a 72% chance the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 bps during its next meeting in May, bringing the Fed rate range to 5%-5.25%.
DXY moved moderately lower last week, closing near 102.09 from 102.59 the week before and Oil price retraced slightly over concerns on the global growth of the economy dampening fuel demand, despite last week’s OPEC+ production cut. The WTI steadied near $79 on Thursday from $80 the previous week.
US Equities ended the day flat whereas Cryptos are up today with BTC nearing the $29,400 ahead of the start of the earnings season kicking off this week with major US Financials set to release – BlackRock, Citigroup, JP Morgan, US Financials among others. Investors will also turn their focus to Wednesday’s Minute of the Fed as well as the latest inflation data, the Consumer Price Index – CPI – and the Producer Price Index – PPI – while keeping an eye on Friday’s retail sales for March to better assess the US consumer spending.
Client Profits
We added to our existing short position on ETH and maintained our short positions on BTC last week. The exposure to the market is now 7% of the AUM, the rest being in cash.
BTC
BTC drifted lower last week, trading near $28,000 on Thursday, down -1.6% from its level a a week ago – $28,450 – as markets digested the latest Nonfarm payrolls confirming the still strong job openings. In the absence of a strong driver, BTC’s 30-day Historical Volatility – HV- decreased slightly and is now nearing 60%, from 66% a week ago. BTC drifted slightly lower throughout the past week with price action steadying near $28,000, still comfortably above the upper line of our upward-sloping parallel channel – currently near $26,700. BTC edged higher over the weekend and is regaining early this week, currently surpassing the $28,500 mark, nearing the $29,200, and inching closer to its highest of the year – $29,380. The month-to-date performance for April is now +2.4% with the YTD performance for 2023 to +76%. BTC is evolving just above the $28,500 mark with the $30,000 / $31,000 region acting as next
major resistance while the next support to watch on the downside is the upsloping trendline of the
parallel channel, near the $26,700 level currently and then the $25,000 region and further down
the $21,000 and major support near $18,350 further below.
ETH
Unlike BTC, ETH printed some gains this past week, reaching its highest level of the year on April 5 near $1,940 and ending the week up +2.4% near $1,865 from $1,820 the week before. Price action started last week up, piercing above the parallel channel at $1,850 before retracing and settling near this $1,850 level on Friday. ETH is up today, trading near $1,905 as price action is piercing through and testing again our upward-sloping parallel channel, currently near $1,870. On the downside the lower band of our upward-sloping channel acts as the next support, currently near $1,700 with a major support near $1,450. The MTD performance for April is now +3.6%, with the YTD performance for 2023 of +58%.
Other markets:
US Equities drifted lower last week with S&P and Nasdaq closing the Easter holiday-shortened- week near 4,105 and 12,087 on Thursday- from 4,110 and 12,220 as markets digested the latest job data confirming the still strong job openings for the month of February despite a light revision – 236,000 VS 239,000 expected, reigniting fears of further rate hikes and an economic recession. S&P and Nasdaq’s MTD performances for April are 0% and -1.1% and the YTD performances +7% and +15% respectively.
DXY
DXY moved moderately lower last week, closing near 102.09 from 102.59 the week before Price action confirmed below the 102.5 level and drifted lower, hitting a low of 101.4 on Wednesday before regaining towards the end of the week as the US dollar strengthened on strong US jobs report boosting the likelihood of another Fed rate hike. DXY is trading higher today, near 102.6 and inching closer to the 103.4 resistance as investors eye the upcoming Consumer Price Index report later this week. In the downside, the 100.7 level acts as support.
US Treasuries
US Treasuries yields also edged lower over the week as investors readjusted their Fed rate hike expectations in the wake of the strong job data report. The yields on the 10Y and 2Y Treasury closing near 3.41% and 3.99% from 3.47% and 4.03% the week before with markets currently pricing in a 72% chance the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 bps during its next meeting in May, which would bring the Fed rate range to 5%-5.25%. The 10Y yield and the policy-sensitive 2Y yield are gaining today, currently near 3.41% and 4.01% from 3.34% and 3.82% last Tuesday.