BTC and ETH rose last week, with BTC and ETH trading near $28,450 and $1,820 on Friday, up +3.6% and +4.0% from their level a week ago – $27,500 and $1,750 – with markets driven by the latest PCE data, showing a slowdown in February and confirming the Fed’s progress to tame inflation – prices rose 5% for the 12 months ending in February (4.6% core inflation) vs 5.3% in January (4.7% core inflation).
US Equities also rose last week with Nasdaq notching its biggest quarterly gain of +16.8% since the second quarter of 2020. S&P and Nasdaq closed higher on Friday near 4,110 and 12,220 as signs of cooling inflation in February revived hopes the Fed could end its rate hikes soon.
US Treasuries yields managed to edge higher over the week amidst mixed signals from the cooling PCE data and hawkish comments from Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggesting more tightening might be needed to cool down inflation further. The yields on the 10Y and 2Y Treasury closed near 3.47% and 4.03% from 3.38% and 3.78% the week before. DXY traded lower, closing near 102.59 from 103.12 the week before and Oil price gained over the week, boosted by signs of recovery in China’s economy with the WTI back to $75 on Friday from $66 the previous week. WTI is rising this week, up near $80 as a surprise production cut from OPEC+ countries boosted prices up on Monday.
US Equities are trading down and Cryptos are up today with BTC nearing $28,200 as investors digest the latest JOLTS Job openings data for February and turn their focus to Wednesday’s ADP employment figures for March, – tracking private sector payrolls on Wednesday – as well as PMI and ISM services data. On Friday, the latest nonfarm payrolls report will be available, tracking job growth in March.
Client Profits
We maintained our short positions on BTC and ETH last week.
The exposure to the market is still 5% of the AUM, the rest being in cash.
BTC
BTC rose last week, trading near $28,450 on Friday, up +3.6% from its level a week ago – $27,500 – with markets driven by the latest PCE data, showing an inflation slowdown in February and confirming the Fed’s progress to tame inflation – prices rose 5% for the 12 months ending in February (4.6% core inflation) vs 5.3% in January (4.7% core inflation).
BTC’s 30-day Historical Volatility – HV- decreased slightly and is now nearing 66%, from 67% a week ago.
BTC increased slightly throughout the past week with price action confirming comfortably above the upper line of our upward-sloping parallel channel – currently near $26,600. BTC edged lower over the weekend and early this week briefly touching the $27,235 on Monday before rebounding and settling near $27,800.
BTC ended the month of March up +23% and is gaining today, trading near $28,200, bringing the MTD performance for April to -1% and the YTD performance for 2023 to +70%.
BTC is evolving just below the $28,500 resistance with the $30,000 / $31,000 region acting as the next major resistance while the next support to watch in the downside is the upsloping trendline of the parallel channel, near the $26,700 level currently and then the $25,000 region and further down the $21,000 and major support near $18,350 further below.
Over the last week, BTC decorrelated with the rest of the asset classes, reacting moderately to the slide of DXY, the fall of banks or even the tech stock rally; BTC seemingly lacked catalyst and trading in the $26,700 / $28,500 range, which could signal the start of a bearish trend.
ETH
Like BTC, ETH printed some gains this past week, trading near $1,820 on Friday, up +4.0% from its level a week ago – $1,750.
Price action started last week down, trading below $1,700 but then steadily increased throughout the week, surpassing the $1,800 on Friday.
ETH is gaining today as price action is piercing through and testing our upward-sloping parallel channel, currently near $1,870. On the downside the lower band of our upward-sloping channel acts as the next support, currently near $1,700 with a major support near $1,450.
ETH ended the month of March up +13.5% and is bringing the MTD performance for April to +2.6%, with the YTD performance for 2023 of +56%.
Other markets
US Equities rose last week with Nasdaq notching its biggest quarterly gain (+16.8%) since the second quarter of 2020. S&P and Nasdaq closed higher on Friday near 4,110 and 12,220 as signs of cooling inflation in February revived hopes the Fed could end its rate hikes soon.
S&P and Nasdaq ended the month of March up +3.5% and +6.7% and the MTD for April are -0.2% and -0.1% respectively.
DXY
DXY edged lower last week, closing near 102.6 from 103.1 the week before. Price action was confirmed below the 103.4 level and drifted lower, sliding below the 102.4 support.
DXY is trading lower today, near 101.6 with the 102.5 level acting as resistance and, on the downside, the 100.7 level now acting as support.
US Treasuries
US Treasuries yields rose over the week amidst mixed signals from the cooling PCE data and hawkish comments from Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggesting more tightening might be needed to cool down inflation further. The yields on the 10Y and 2Y Treasury closed near 3.47% and 4.03% from 3.38% and 3.78% the week before. The 10Y and 2Y yields are falling today, currently near 3.34% and 3.82% from 3.54% and 4% last Monday.