CFT Update Monday, March 27th
BTC and ETH were little changed last week, with BTC briefly surpassing $29,300 before settling on Friday near $27,500, whereas ETH settled near $1,750, respectively up +0.3% and down -2.3% from their level a week ago – $27,470 and $1,790 – as markets digested the latest central banks’ decisions and weighed the risk of recession, readjusting their interest rates anticipations.
Amidst this eventful week with the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bps to 4.75%- 5% despite the stress hitting the banking system taking center stage, US Equities managed to edge higher. S&P and Nasdaq closed near 3,971 and 11,824, up +1.4% and +1.6% over the week.
US Treasuries yield lost a bit of ground with the Fed rate hike announcement and the central bank hinting it may not tighten its monetary policy much more. The yields on the 10Y and 2Y Treasury closed near 3.38% and 3.78% from 3.44% and 3.85% the week before. DXY managed to limit the losses closing near 103.12 from 103.86 the week before and Oil price managed to regain over the week, the WTI nearing $69 on Friday from $66 the previous week.
Cryptos are retracing today with BTC nearing $27,100 as investors turn their focus to this Friday Price Consumption Expenditure for February – PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator/ Markets will also keep an eye on Tuesday and Friday U.S. consumer confidence and sentiment for the month of March.
Client Profits
We took profits on half of our BTC short position when BTC hit $27,000 and maintained our short position on ETH.
The exposure to the market is now 5% of the AUM, the rest being in cash.
BTC
BTC made little gains last week, briefly surpassing the $29,300 before settling on Friday near $27,500, up +0.3% from its level a week ago – $27,470 – as markets digested the latest central banks’ decisions and weighed the risk of recession, readjusting their interest rates anticipations.
BTC’s 30-day Historical Volatility – HV- increased slightly and is now nearing 67%.
BTC advanced a little throughout the week with price action confirming above the upper line of our upward-sloping parallel channel – currently near $26,300. On Friday, BTC reached its highest level of the year above $29,830 before retracing and settling near $27,500 during the session. BTC edged higher over the weekend and regained $28,000 on Sunday.
BTC is retracing today, now trading near $27,150, bringing the MTD performance for March to +17.3% and the YTD performance for 2023 to +64%.
On the upside, the $30,000 / $31,000 region still acts as resistance with next resistances near $32,000 while the next support to watch on the downside is the upsloping trendline of the parallel channel, near the $26,300 level currently and then the $25,000 region and further down the ATH from Dec 2017 just under $20,000 and major support near $18,350 further below.
ETH
Unlike BTC, ETH edged lower this past week, trading near $1,750 on Friday with a high above $1,850 during Thursday’s session, down -2.3% over the week.
Price action remained relatively steady but fell on Friday with ETH losing close to -3.5%. ETH is also retracing today, near $1,710 with the price still evolving within our upward-sloping parallel channel with the $1,830 level acting as resistance and on the downside our upward-sloping trendline acting as minor support, currently near $1,655 with major support near $1,400.
The MTD performance for March is now +6.8% and the YTD performance for 2023 of +43%.
Other markets
Amidst this eventful week with the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bps to 4.75%- 5% despite the stress hitting the banking system taking center stage, US Equities managed to edge higher. S&P and Nasdaq closed near 3,971 and 11,824, up +1.4% and +1.6% over the week, allowing prices to confirm above their 200 MA level – 200 MA currently near 3,940 and 11,395.
S&P and Nasdaq are starting this week mixed, S&P up +0.17% near 3,977 and Nasdaq down -0.47% near 11,768, bringing the MTD performance for the month of March to +0.2% and +2.7% and the YTD performance to +3.6% and +12.4% respectively.
DXY
DXY managed to limit the losses, edging lower and closing near 103.1 from 103.9 the week before. Price action broke below the 103.4 support on Tuesday and confirmed below for the remainder of last week.
DXY is trading moderately down today, near 102.8 with the 103.4 level acting as new resistance and, on the downside, the 102.4 level acting as support.
US Treasuries
US Treasuries yield lost some ground with the Fed rate hike announcement and the central bank hinting it may not tighten its monetary policy much more. The yields on the 10Y – tenor for mortgage rates and other longer-term loans – and 2Y Treasury – tenor that tends to track expectations for the Fed – closed down near 3.38% and 3.78% from 3.44% and 3.85% the week before.
The 10Y and 2Y yield are regaining today and recovering the losses from last week, currently near 3.54% and 4% from 3.48% and 3.97% last Monday.