Report CFT Monday, April 28th, 2025
BTC and ETH posted sharp gains over the past week, driven by easing trade tensions, but are set to end April with mixed performances. After rebounding from a low near $74,400 on April 7, BTC rallied to a high of $95,815 before settling near $94,700 last Friday and is on track for a +14% monthly gain. ETH, despite a late-month bounce near $1,800, remains down about – 2% month-to-date. April also saw momentum from BlackRock’s BTC ETP launch in Europe, excitement ahead of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade on May 7, and rising expectations for a U.S. Solana ETF. Meanwhile, the nomination of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as SEC Chair lifted sentiment, while digital asset products recorded their largest weekly inflows since December ($3.4bn), bringing YTD net inflows to $3.5 billion, according to CoinShares.
US equities posted a strong rebound this week, lifted by easing tariffs talks and a tech-led rally driven by Tesla and Nvidia. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed near 5,525 and 17,383, gaining +4.6% and +6.4%, respectively. Markets surged after President Trump announced major tariff reductions on Chinese goods, easing trade fears that had weighed on sentiment earlier in April. Despite the consumer sentiment index falling to 52.2, its lowest since July 2022, optimism returned on hopes of reduced tariffs and speculation that the Fed could start cutting rates later this year. The VIX retreated to 25, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain down -6.1% and – 7.4% year-to-date, respectively.
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower this week as potential tariff rollbacks and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplaying the recent spike in yields revived demand for risk assets, while weaker economic data reinforced expectations of future Fed cuts. The 2-year and 10-year yields fell to lows around 3.45% and 3.86% early April, before recovering to 3.76% and 4.26% last Friday, as markets now price in a 57% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in June 2025. Cooling inflation pressures and Bessent’s reassurance helped push bond yields lower despite lingering economic uncertainties.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained under pressure, slipping toward a three-year low near 98 before stabilizing. The index closed the week near 99.59 as of last Friday. A decisive move below 98 could open the door to further downside, while a recovery above 100 would be needed to challenge the bearish trend.
Oil prices closed the week higher, with WTI trading near $63, after a volatile month that saw prices hit a four-year low near $55, dragged down by escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and OPEC+’s unexpected decision to boost May output by 411,000 barrels per day — more than triple initial plans. Optimism later returned thanks to positive U.S.-China trade talks, boosting hopes for stronger demand, while renewed tensions around U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations added upward pressure. Markets remain sensitive ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on May 5, where Saudi Arabia is expected to push for further production increases.
BTC and ETH are trading slightly higher today as investors brace for a data-heavy week, starting with Wednesday’s ADP jobs report (expected +123,000), Q1 U.S. GDP data, and March Core PCE inflation (+0.1% expected). Key releases later in the week include April ISM Manufacturing and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (+129,000 expected). Housing updates with Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales will also be watched midweek. On the earnings front, results from Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, AMD, Eli Lilly, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Qualcomm will provide insights into corporate resilience amid lingering growth concerns.
Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook
Recent Actions
Over the course of April, we closed 13 trades, all profitable except for one neutral reallocation. As of April 28, our portfolio exposure to the market stands at 35%, composed of 34% in long positions and 1% in short positions, with the remaining 65% held in cash. Our long exposure is diversified across large-cap and altcoins such as ETH, ARB, OP, and IMX, among others, while our only short position is a 1% allocation in SUI.
We currently have no BTC short exposure but plan to initiate short positions if BTC decisively breaks above $96,000 while remaining flexible and ready to adjust our positioning based on broader market conditions.
Market Strategy
Since our last report on March 20, BTC struggled to gain upside momentum amid tariff speculation, pulling back to a low of $74,388 on April 7 before regaining strength later in the month as trade tensions eased. The price broke above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, eventually reaching a high above the $95,000 mark amid strong institutional inflows. While BTC is currently consolidating near $94,000, a sustained breakout above $95,000 could pave the way for a retest of $100,000 and $108,000. Conversely, lingering tariff uncertainty could reignite bearish pressure and push the price back toward $90,000 and $87,000, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level currently lies.
Market Outlook
As highlighted in our last report, we continue to anticipate a mid-term bearish cycle through 2025 rather than a short-term correction. Broader market conditions — particularly the ongoing equity market volatility, persistent inflation pressures, and a high interest rate environment — could continue to weigh on BTC and other risk assets.
While the recent rebound above $95,000 reflects improving sentiment following easing trade tensions, we remain cautious given lingering downside risks tied to U.S. tariff policy, persistent inflation, recession concerns, and geopolitical instability, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict. These factors continue to fuel market uncertainty and volatility.
In this environment, we maintain a defensive stance, focusing on key technical support levels while closely monitoring macroeconomic developments that could shift BTC’s momentum.
BTC
BTC posted sharp gains over the past week, driven by easing trade tensions. After rebounding from a low near $74,400 on April 7, BTC rallied to a high of $95,815 before settling near $94,700 last Friday and is on track for a +14% monthly gain. Sentiment was further supported by BlackRock’s BTC ETP launch in Europe and the nomination of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins as SEC Chair. Meanwhile, digital asset investment products recorded their largest weekly inflows since December ($3.4 billion), bringing year-to-date net inflows to $3.5 billion, according to CoinShares.
On the daily chart, BTC has broken beyond its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, currently near $90,600 and $89,300, confirming a bullish breakout. Immediate resistance stands at $95,000, with extension targets at $100,000, $103,000, and $108,000. On the downside, support lies at $90,000, with further downside risk toward $87,000, acting as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
After rounding up 2023 performance to +155% and 2024 up +121%, BTC’s 2025 YTD is currently at +0.6%.
ETH
Like BTC, ETH hit a low near $1,385 early April and posted a late-month bounce, hitting a high near $1,855 and settling last Friday near $1,785, gaining +12.3% over the week. The cryptocurrency is still set to end April down about -2% overall. Price action remains choppy despite improving market sentiment following easing trade tensions and renewed excitement around Ethereum’s upcoming Pectra upgrade, scheduled for May 7.
On the daily chart, ETH found support near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($1,570) and is attempting to reclaim the key $2,000 psychological mark. On the downside, $1,500 and $1,250 — corresponding to the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement — serve as the next major support zones.
After gaining +90% in 2023 and +46% in 2024, ETH’s year-to-date (YTD) performance for 2025 currently stands at -46%.
Other markets
US equities posted a strong rebound this week, also lifted by improving trade talks and a tech-led rally driven by Tesla and Nvidia. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed near 5,525 and 17,383, gaining +4.6% and +6.4%, respectively. Markets surged after President Trump announced major tariff reductions on Chinese goods, easing tariff fears that had weighed on sentiment earlier in April. Despite the consumer sentiment index falling to 52.2, its lowest since July 2022, optimism returned on hopes of reduced tariffs and speculation that the Fed could start cutting rates later this year. The VIX retreated to 25, though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain down -6.1% and -7.4% year-to-date, respectively.
On the daily charts, the S&P 500 briefly dipped to a low near 4,835 before initiating a recovery toward 5,500, where it is currently trading. The 5,650 area now acts as the next major resistance zone, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by the 200-day MA at 5,700.
The Nasdaq followed a similar trajectory, finding support near 15,870 last week and now consolidating around 17,400. While recent tariff de-escalation has provided relief, markets remain on edge amid ongoing trade negotiations and inflation risks ahead of the FOMC meeting on May 7.
After ending 2023 up +24% and +43%, and 2024 up +28% and +29%, S&P and Nasdaq’s YTD performances are currently -6.1% and -10%.
DXY
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained under pressure this week, slipping toward a three-year low near 98 before stabilizing. The index closed near 99.59 last Friday. A decisive move below 98 could trigger further downside, while a recovery above 100 would be needed to challenge the bearish trend.
Near term, DXY could attempt an uptrend toward the 101–102 area, but downside risks remain if key support at 98 fails.
US Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower this week as potential tariff rollbacks and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplaying the recent spike in yields revived demand for risk assets, while weaker economic data reinforced expectations of future Fed cuts. The 2-year and 10-year yields fell to lows around 3.45% and 3.86% early April, before recovering to 3.76% and 4.26% last Friday, as markets now price in a 57% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in June 2025. Cooling inflation pressures and Bessent’s reassurance helped push bond yields lower despite lingering economic uncertainties.
On the technical side, the 10-year yield confirmed the breakdown below the neckline of the Head and Shoulders (HS) pattern we highlighted in our March report, dropping to a low of 3.86% before rebounding and settling near 4.21% currently while the 2Y yield is evolving near 3.69%, confirming the end of the yield curve inversion.
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