Weekly Report CFT Thursday, March 20th, 2025
BTC and ETH saw choppy price action this week, with both assets experiencing swings but ultimately set to end the week near flat after last week’s losses of -3.2% and -10.7%, respectively. After hitting a low of $76,528 on Mar 11, BTC attempted a rebound, briefly climbing above $85,000 on Fed optimism before pulling back and finding support near $83,500. Similarly, ETH dropped to a low near $1,750 on March 11 and fluctuated around $2,000 without establishing a clear trend this week. Meanwhile, digital asset investment products recorded their fifth consecutive week of outflows, with net inflows for 2025 shrinking to $0.9 billion, according to CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows report.
US equities posted a fourth straight weekly loss, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing near 5,640 and 17,750, down -2.3% and -2.4%. The decline persisted despite positive economic data, including a lower-than-expected 2.8% inflation rate in February and job openings rising to 7.74 million, above estimates. Trade tensions and weak consumer sentiment weighed on markets, with key reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, adding to uncertainty. Besides, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 57.9, its lowest level since November 2022.
Markets fluctuated earlier in the week before rallying on the Fed’s rate comments and optimism surrounding Nvidia’s GTC event. The Fed kept rates at 4.25%–4.50% while signaling caution on inflation, leaving the door open for future cuts. The VIX stayed elevated, highlighting ongoing market volatility.
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower this week as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid trade policy uncertainties and recession fears, heightened by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on economic growth and inflation uncertainties. The 2-year and 10-year yields dropped to lows of 3.91% and 4.17% on March 20, down from their close of 4.02% and 4.31% the previous week. Markets are now pricing in a 61.5% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by June 2025.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) started the week on a weaker note, dipping to 103.20 before rebounding after the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, maintaining a cautious stance amid evolving inflation and economic conditions. The index found support near 103.3 on Tuesday and is now inching toward resistance around 104, which also aligns with the lower bound of the descending parallel channel it broke below on March 5. A decisive move above this level could indicate further upside potential, while failure to break through may reinforce the ongoing bearish trend.
Oil prices are set to end the week flat, with WTI crude trading around $68 per barrel as Middle East tensions and oversupply concerns balanced each other out. Bearish sentiment persists as investors reassess the demand outlook amid rising U.S. recession risks, while optimism over Ukraine peace talks, which could ease sanctions on Russian fuel exports and increase supply, adds further pressure.
BTC and ETH are trading lower as investors digest the FOMC’s guidance, economic data, and earnings from Nike, FedEx, and Micron. Markets also brace for Friday’s triple witching event, which could add to volatility as options and futures contracts expire.
Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook
Recent Actions
Over the course of March, we took profits on 13 trades including ETH, and increased our long exposure in select altcoins—including TON, ICP, and DOT among others. Our portfolio exposure to the market is currently 54.50%, with the remaining 45.50% held in cash. We currently have no active short positions.
Market Strategy
Since our last report on February 24, BTC failed to hold the $96,000 level and pulled back to a low near $76,528. Price is now attempting to regain momentum, testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $87,200. A sustained breakdown below $80,000 could trigger a deeper sell-off toward key support levels at $73,000 and $69,000, where we anticipate strong buying interest. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above the $91,000 zone could signal a resumption of the uptrend. We increased our allocation as BTC retraced to key support levels and remained focused on swing trades with limited exposure while staying prepared to scale allocations should BTC approach major support zones or confirm a breakout.
Market Outlook
As mentioned in our last report we expect a mid-term bear cycle through 2025 rather than a short-term pullback. Broader market conditions—particularly an extended correction in equities and a persistently high interest rate environment—could continue to weigh on BTC and other risk assets.
Considering the lack of sustained momentum, we remain cautious as downside risks remain, especially with ongoing concerns over U.S. tariffs, monetary policy, and geopolitical instability, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Recession risks further add to market uncertainty and volatility.
We remain cautious in the near term, maintaining a strategic approach focused on key support levels while monitoring macroeconomic shifts that could drive renewed BTC momentum.
BTC
BTC saw choppy price action this week, experiencing swings but ultimately set to end the week near flat after last week’s losses of -3.2%. After hitting a low of $76,528 on Mar 11, BTC attempted a rebound, briefly climbing above $85,000 on Fed optimism before pulling back and finding support near $83,500. Meanwhile, digital asset investment products recorded their fifth consecutive week of outflows, with net inflows for 2025 shrinking to $0.9 billion, according to CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows report.
On the daily chart, BTC broke out of its consolidation phase, hitting a low of $76,600 before attempting a rebound over the past few days with a high near $87,426 and is currently testing that level acting as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A sustained breakdown below $80,000 could trigger a deeper sell-off toward key support levels at $73,000 and $69,000, where we anticipate strong buying interest. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above the $91,000 zone could signal a resumption of the uptrend.
After rounding up 2023 performance to +155% and 2024 up +121%, BTC’s 2025 YTD is currently -9.5%.
ETH
Like BTC, ETH retraced last week, with the cryptocurrency losing about -10.7% and trading near $1,859 on Friday.
On the daily chart, ETH broke below the $2,500 support and pulled back to a low near $1,750 on March 11. Like BTC, ETH has been attempting a rebound this week, currently retesting the psychological $2,000 mark, while the $1,500 and the $1,250 – also 88.6 Fib retracement – zones serve as the next key supports on the downside.
After gaining +90% in 2023 and +46% in 2024, ETH’s year-to-date (YTD) performance for 2025 currently stands at -40%.
Other markets
US equities experienced a fourth consecutive weekly decline, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing near 5,640 and 17,750, respectively shedding -2.3% and -2.4%. The downturn persisted despite encouraging economic indicators earlier in the week, such as a lower-than-expected 2.8% annual inflation rate in February and an increase in job openings to 7.74 million in January. The decline was primarily driven by escalating trade tensions and a sharp drop in consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 57.9 falling short of the anticipated 63.1, its lowest since November 2022 of 56.8, amid concerns over President Trump’s tariff policies and rising inflation expectations. The VIX remained elevated, reflecting ongoing market volatility.
Markets chopped sideways earlier in the week but gained momentum following the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and optimism around Nvidia’s GTC event. The Fed kept rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% but signaled caution about inflation, leaving open the possibility of cuts later in the year.
On the daily charts, the S&P 500 continued to break lower, trading further away from its upward-sloping wedge and finding support near 5,500. As mentioned in our last report, a sustained break below 6,000 could set the stage for a deeper decline, which has now materialized. The Nasdaq followed a similar trajectory, finding support near 17,300 last week and is now ranging around 17,700. While the recent Fed decision provided temporary relief, markets remain on edge amid ongoing trade tensions and inflation risks.
After ending 2023 up +24% and +43%, and 2024 up +28% and +29%, S&P and Nasdaq’s YTD performances are currently -3.5% and -8.1%.
DXY
The US Dollar Index (DXY) started the week on a weaker note, dipping to 103.20 before rebounding after the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, maintaining a cautious stance amid evolving inflation and economic conditions. The index found support near 103.3 on Tuesday and is now inching toward resistance around 104, which also aligns with the lower bound of the descending parallel channel it broke below on March 5. A decisive move above this level could indicate further upside potential, while failure to break through may reinforce the ongoing bearish trend.
The index pulled back to a low of 103.20 on March 18, a level last seen in October 2024, and is currently hovering near 103.8. Support is near 102.7, while on the upside, the 104 level and the 200-day MA, currently near 105, serve as key resistance levels.
US Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower this week as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid trade policy uncertainties and recession fears, heightened by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on economic growth and inflation uncertainties. The 2-year and 10-year yields dropped to lows of 3.91% and 4.17% on March 20, down from their close of 4.02% and 4.31% the previous week. Markets are now pricing in a 61.5% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by June 2025. On the daily chart, we can see the formation of a Head and Should -HS- pattern which could signal a bearish move in the coming days, should the price break below the neckline at 4.14%.
The 10Y yield is currently trading near 4.24% while the 2Y yield is evolving near 3.96%, confirming the end of the yield curve inversion.
Disclaimer: Cryptos Fund Trading provides execution-only services. We do not offer financial advice or portfolio management. All content is for informational purposes only.
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