BTC and ETH printed losses last week, with BTC briefly dropping below the 27,000 mark before settling near $27,250, and ETH near $1,850 on Friday, down -10.5% and -12% from their level a week ago – $30,500 and $2,100.
US Equities showed little reaction throughout last week, with S&P and Nasdaq closing the week down -0.1% and -0.4%, near 4,133 and 12,072 on Friday – from 4,138 and 12,123 the previous week – as markets weighed the latest round of corporate earnings results and digested the latest labour market data and the PMI Index, reaching an 11-month high in April and reviving concerns the Fed could have further arguments to continue to raise rates.
US Treasuries yields moved higher this week. The yields on the 10Y and 2Y Treasury closing near 3.58% and 4.19% – from 3.52% and 4.10% the week before – with markets currently pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis point hike during next week’s FOMC meeting in May, according to CME’s FedWatchTool. DXY edged higher last week, closing near 101.72 from 101.59 the week before and Oil price dropped last week, as traders weighed the prospect of further rate hikes from the Fed and the potential risks of recession combined with an increasing inventory in China. The WTI exchanged nearly $78 on Friday from $83 the previous week.
BTC and ETH are moving lower today as traders gear themselves for a busy week where Thursday’s US GDP data and Friday’s latest core PCE data will take center stage in anticipation of next week’s FOMC rate decision. Investors will also keep an eye on the following of the earnings season with major companies set to report – Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Coca-Cola Company, McDonald’s, Visa, Mastercard, Verizon, and Boeing among others.
Client Profits
No changes were made last week.
We kept our short positions on BTC and ETH we opened when BTC and ETH neared the $30,100 and $2,010 levels last week, which currently represent strong unrealised profits. The exposure to the market is still of 12% of the AUM, the rest being in cash.
BTC
BTC dropped last week, with BTC briefly dropping below the 27,000 mark before settling near $27,250 on Friday, down -10.5% from its level a week ago – near $30,500.
BTC’s 30-day Historical Volatility – HV- is still nearing 40%, pretty much in line with its level from a week ago.
BTC continuously moved downwards throughout the past week with price action piercing below the $28,700 minor support and touching the $27,250 on Friday as markets weighed the possibility of further rate hikes following the strong economic data.
The month-to-date performance for April is now -3.7% with the YTD performance for 2023 of +66%.
BTC is evolving near the $27,500 mark with the $28,700 region acting as the next minor resistance while the next minor support to watch on the downside is the $26,700 level with the $25,000 major support next and another major support near $21,600 further below.
ETH
Like BTC, ETH dropped last week, breaking below the $2,030 level and touching the $1,850 region during Friday’s session, ETH printing -12% over the week – trading near $1,850 on Friday from $2,100 the week before, the crypto losing ground as investors geared for further rate hikes with stronger than expected economic data.
Price action continuously edged lower before dropping drastically during Wednesday’s session (-8%), breaking through the $2,030 support, re-joining our channel and settling just below $1,850 on Friday.
ETH is down today, trading near $1,835 as price action is inching closer to the $1,780 support. Further to the downside, the lower band of our upward-sloping channel acts as the next support, currently near $1,750 with major support near $1,500.
The MTD performance for April is now +0.8%, with the YTD performance for 2023 of +53%.
Other markets
US Equities showed little reaction throughout last week, with S&P and Nasdaq closing the week moderately down -0.1% and -0.4%, near 4,133 and 12,072 on Friday – from 4,138 and 12,123 the previous week – as markets weighed the latest round of corporate earnings results and digested the latest labor market data and the PMI Index, reaching an 11-month high in April and reviving concerns the Fed could have further arguments to continue to raise rates.
S&P and Nasdaq’s MTD performances for April are +0.7% and -1.5% and the YTD performances are +7.7% and +15% respectively.
DXY
DXY edged higher last week, closing near 101.72 from 101.59 the week before.
DXY is trading down today, near 101.34, with price action confined to a short-term trading range between 101.3 and 102.2. The index is currently testing the 101.3 support and evolving below our upward-sloping trendline currently at 102.4 and acting as resistance. Further below the 100.7 level acts as support in the downside.
US Treasuries
US Treasuries yields moved higher this past week. The yields on the 10Y and 2Y Treasury closing near 3.58% and 4.19% – from 3.52% and 4.10% the week before – with markets currently pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis point hike during next week’s FOMC meeting in May, according to CME’s FedWatchTool. The US 10-year/2-year curve inversion interpreted as a recession signal is still inverted, by -61bps.
The 10Y yield and the policy-sensitive 2Y yield lost most of their gains from last week today, currently near 3.49% and 4.09% from 3.60% and 4.20% last Monday.