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Bitcoin has been on a tear as everybody knows. We were looking for some sideways before higher. We actually subdivided much quicker than we thought, and we have continued up here, we are at $41,500. It would appear this is the end of the large wave 3 up here, or we are close to it. We did not get a deeper pullback like we wanted to get more long. Our BTC ALGO is still long from that $28,000 level (and before that was a long from $19K, etc). So, we are long (50% Global AUM) but would like to be longer, but we think we will get an opportunity to do that on a bigger large white wave 4 here we show on the chart. So could subdivide a little higher short term, but we still think a correction is coming here,
For one reason, we still think the U.S. stock market, we have been showing this chart here. We are still long U.S. stocks, we had a buy signal on Dow Jones stocks Monday morning, so this just continues slightly higher. We do not have a sell as of yet, but we think that is coming here in the next week. So we do believe the stock market selloff, a wave 2 down is coming. We did take a small loss in Microsoft, a dollar or two. We are still long PAGS which continues higher. We are still long KEYS which has extended much higher here short term. We are also long TRIP from $26.80, and we are sitting here at $32, which is right before the U.S. stock market is opening. So again, we think stocks work a little bit higher; then stocks will prepare for a large correction.
This is the U.S. Dollar, as you know, we are still looking for a low here in the U.S. dollar. The sentiment is at huge extremes, so we expect at least an “abc” bounce in the dollar, a large one though. That could bring a pullback in the cryptocurrencies. The precious metals we are still short; this is the XAU. We are short the miners, and by doing that, we are long DUST. You can see here we are long, its called higher today around $18, we are long at $18.80, so we have minor losses on the short metals and the long dollar trade.
But again we think the dollar is making a major low, and we also believe that Bitcoin will see a correction, while the U.S. stock market sees a larger correction.