Date: 18 August 2025
Weekly Market Outlook
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🧭 Macro
Markets are pausing ahead of Jackson Hole, with Powell’s Friday speech likely to shape expectations around potential rate cuts. The CPI/PPI divergence (cooler CPI, hotter PPI) has kept equities range-bound. As typical for late August, liquidity remains thin, increasing the risk of erratic moves.
Bond yields remain capped around 4.40%, while the Dollar Index is attempting to base near 98. The breakout on EUR/USD from a 15-year trendline points to slow dollar weakening — not a crash.
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₿ Crypto
BTC
•Local top confirmed at $124,570, invalidating the previous topping tail — now forming a double top structure.
•Support: April trendline has broken. Price pierced $115K (current low at writing is $114,600). Next key zones: 112K, then major support at 108K–100K.
•⚠️ A confirmed break of the April trendline could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $100K.
ETH
•Rejected last week at $4,795.
•Trading today near $4,222.
•Key support levels: $4,100, then $4,035, followed by $3,500, and the major zone around $3,150–3,035.
•Watch $4,065–4,075 as the first meaningful support — a break may accelerate downside.
USDT.D
•Spiked to 4.37% this morning before U.S. market open.
•This bounce confirms early de-risking flows. The structure remains above the triple-bottom zone at 3.80%, which historically aligns with local BTC/ETH tops and an altcoin slowdown.
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📈 Equities
•S&P 500 rejected at 6,449, closing Friday just below major upsloping resistance (trendline from Oct 2023). RSI continues to roll over.
•NASDAQ pulled back from the top of its channel — watch QQQ 364 for confirmation of weakness.
•Key resistance remains at 6,440–6,460.
•⚠️ A reminder: trendline breaks without follow-through are unreliable — the risk of fakeouts remains elevated.
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💼 Portfolio Update
🔸 Longs (Total: 2.00%)
•TIA: 1.00% at $1.75 (reloaded today after two rounds of profits)
•ICP: 1.00% at $5.26 (reloaded after similar setup round profits taken)
🔻 Shorts (Total: 28.00%)
•BTC: 19.00% at $118,000 (after partial take profit at $115K)
•ETH: 8.00% at $3,881
•LINK: 1.00% at $26.20 (opened 17 Aug)
💵 Cash Available: 70.00%
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🔭 View
Crypto is at pivotal levels. BTC/ETH have broken key trendlines, but confirmation is essential. The rise in USDT.D points to risk-off flows, supporting the short thesis.
Still holding elevated cash to remain flexible.
This week’s catalysts — retail earnings + Jackson Hole — may define the next trend.
Short-term bias = cautious bearish on majors.
Medium-term (Q4) remains open — confirmation needed before re-risking.
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