BTC and ETH have retraced this past week, with BTC shedding -1.4% over the week with a low near $93,290 on Feb 18 while ETH also struggled, losing -2.4%, reflecting the overall market sentiment as tariffs negotiations come into effect, overshadowing positive news from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) agreeing to drop its lawsuit against Coinbase, signaling a more supportive regulatory environment. BTC and ETH were trading on Friday near $96,150 and $2,661 while total inflows for 2025 have reached $6.4 billion, according to CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows report.
US equities fell last week as disappointing economic data and cautious corporate guidance fuelled concerns over slowing consumer demand amid inflation and tariff risks. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped 10% to 64.7, while Walmart’s cautious earnings outlook signaled weaker consumer spending, driving a broader decline in the retail sector. The S&P and Nasdaq closed near 6,013 and 19,524, respectively, with the VIX piercing above 19 on Friday.
U.S. Treasury yields also fell, revisiting their lowest levels this year as investors rushed to safe-haven bonds amid slowing U.S. economic activity. The PMI declined to 50.4 in February from 52.7 in January, signaling a slowdown. The 2-year and 10-year yields fell to 4.19% and 4.41%, respectively, reflecting heightened risk aversion. A weaker-than-expected PMI in February added to concerns over slowing economic momentum and risks of stagflation. Investors remain cautious after the Fed’s policy cautious inflation stance observed in its latest minutes report, while uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs lingers. Markets now price a 47% chance of a 25bps rate cut by June 2025.
DXY saw a mixed performance this week, initially strengthening against major currencies before paring gains after PMI missed expectations, with FX markets focused on upcoming US trade policy updates while speculation over the Fort Knox gold audit added uncertainty to the greenback’s outlook, as a shortfall in reserves could undermine confidence in the dollar and potentially boost alternative stores of value like Bitcoin. The index pulled back to a low of 106.33 on Thursday to close the week near 106.64. It is currently finding support near its 100-day MA near 106.5 though further downside could be tested, with the 107 and 108 levels acting as resistances in the upside.
Oil prices remained under pressure, with WTI trading near $70 on Friday, below its 200-day and 100-day moving averages. Bearish sentiment persists as investors are reassessing the demand outlook amid a weaker U.S. economy while rising supply concerns add to the pressure. A potential Ukraine peace deal that could ease Russian supply constraints and the resumption of Kurdish oil exports have further weighed on prices.
BTC and ETH are trading lower today as investors are bracing for a busy week with Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday and Friday’s PCE inflation report in the spotlight. The Core PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to rise 0.3% in January, with the year-over-year rate easing to 2.6% from 2.8% last month. Other key data to watch will include GDP Q4 revision, consumer confidence, and housing reports, while earnings from Home Depot, Lowe’s, Salesforce, Stellantis, and Dell will provide further insights into corporate performance amid ongoing geopolitical and policy uncertainties.
Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook
Recent Actions
Over the course of February, we have closed 12 trades, all profitable, and reopened 9 new positions on select altcoins – including TON, DOT, AVAX, LINK, and ICP among others – which remain open as of now. Our portfolio exposure to the market is currently 29%, with the remaining 71% held in cash.
Market Strategy
Since our last report on January 30, BTC failed to hold the $105,000 pivot level and pulled back to a low near $93,000. It is now trading within a tight range between $98,500 and $94,500. A breakdown below this range could trigger a larger sell-off toward key support levels at $92,000, $80,000, and $75,000, where we anticipate strong buying interest. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above resistance could signal a resumption of the uptrend. For now, our strategy remains focused on swing trades with limited exposure, while staying prepared to increase allocations should BTC approach key support zones or confirm a breakout.
Market Outlook
BTC may face a more prolonged correction than initially anticipated, as we now expect a mid-term bear cycle through 2025 rather than a short-term pullback. Broader market conditions— particularly an extended correction in equities and a persistently high interest rate environment—could continue to weigh on BTC and other risk assets.
Additionally, speculation over the Fort Knox gold audit has added uncertainty to the greenback’s outlook. A potential shortfall in reserves could undermine confidence in the dollar, fueling demand for alternative stores of value like Bitcoin. Meanwhile, institutional allocation strategies remain in flux, with disruptions from DeepSeek’s advancements impacting capital flows across tech, energy, and crypto sectors.
Given these factors, we remain cautious in the near term, maintaining a strategic approach focused on key support levels while monitoring macroeconomic shifts that could drive renewed BTC momentum.
BTC
BTC retraced this past week, shedding -1.4% over the week with a low near $93,290 on Feb 18, reflecting the overall market sentiment as tariffs negotiations came into effect, overshadowing positive news from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) agreeing to drop its lawsuit against Coinbase, signaling a more supportive regulatory environment. BTC was trading on Friday near $96,150 while total inflows for 2025 have reached $6.4 billion, according to CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows report.
On the daily chart, BTC has been consolidating within a tight range between $94,500 and $98,500 over the past few days. A break and confirmation below $94,500 could see a test of the $92,000–$91,000 trendline, a strong support area. On the upside, a breakout above $98,500 would increase the odds of a move toward $108,000. This consolidation phase suggests that price is building momentum for a larger move, and market participants are closely watching for a decisive breakout in the coming days.
We maintain a positive long-term outlook for BTC, driven by expectations of a favorable regulatory environment under Trump’s administration, increasing institutional adoption, and the Fed’s anticipated rate-cut cycle, which could support risk assets. However, the growing likelihood of a prolonged bearish phase remains a key risk, potentially leading to consecutive red monthly candles through 2025. A slowing U.S. economy and continued equity market weakness could further dampen sentiment, reinforcing the need for a cautious and flexible approach in the near term.
After rounding up 2023 performance to +155% and 2024 up +121%, BTC’s 2025 YTD is currently +1%.
ETH
Like BTC, ETH had a challenging week, with the cryptocurrency losing about -2.4% and trading near $2,661 on Friday.
On the daily chart, ETH has been pulling back and consolidating within a narrow range between $2,530 and $2,850. Similar to BTC, this phase could be building momentum for a decisive move, with key support at $2,500 and resistance at $3,000, while the 200-day MA near $2,900 adds another technical barrier.
After gaining +90% in 2023 and +46% in 2024, ETH’s year-to-date (YTD) performance for 2025 currently stands at -20%.
Other markets
US equities fell last week as disappointing economic data and cautious corporate guidance fuelled concerns over slowing consumer demand amid inflation and tariff risks. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped 10% to 64.7, while Walmart’s cautious earnings outlook signaled weaker consumer spending, driving a broader decline in the retail sector. The S&P and Nasdaq closed near 6,013 and 19,524, respectively, with the VIX piercing above 19 on Friday.
On the daily charts, the S&P 500 closed back below the key 6,000 trendline, which had been confirmed as support the previous week but was now lost. A sustained break below this level could set the stage for a significant decline. As for the Nasdaq, it closed below the 19,640 trendline on Friday, and if it confirms below this level this week, it could open the door for further downside move.
After ending 2023 up +24% and +43%, and 2024 up +28% and +29%, S&P and Nasdaq’s YTD performances are currently +2.2% and +1.1%.
DXY
DXY saw a mixed performance this week, initially strengthening against major currencies before paring gains after PMI missed expectations, with FX markets focused on upcoming US trade policy updates while speculation over the Fort Knox gold audit added uncertainty to the greenback’s outlook, as a shortfall in reserves could undermine confidence in the dollar and potentially boost alternative stores of value like Bitcoin.
The index pulled back to a low of 106.33 on Thursday to close the week near 106.64. It is currently finding support near its 100-day MA near 106.5 though further downside could be tested, with the 107 and 108 levels acting as resistances in the upside.
US Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields tumbled, revisiting their lowest levels this year as investors rushed to safe-haven bonds amid slowing U.S. economic activity. The PMI declined to 50.4 in February from 52.7 in January, signaling a slowdown. The 2-year and 10-year yields fell to 4.19% and 4.41%, respectively, reflecting heightened risk aversion. A weaker-than-expected PMI in February added to concerns over slowing economic momentum and risks of stagflation. Investors remain cautious after the Fed’s policy cautious inflation stance observed in its latest minutes report, while uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs lingers. Markets now price a 47% chance of a 25bps rate cut by June 2025.
The 10Y yield is currently trading near 4.40% while the 2Y yield is evolving near 4.17%, confirming the end of the yield curve inversion.
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