Market Overview
BTC and ETH ended the week higher as bullish sentiment continued, fuelled by institutional buying and optimism around U.S. regulatory progress. BTC rose +8.8% week-over-week, trading near $117,500 on Friday, while ETH rallied +18%, trading near $2,950.
BTC hit a new all-time high of $123,350 on Monday before retracing slightly. Despite recent volatility, BTC is now up +28% year-to-date, and ETH, which had lagged earlier in the year, has trimmed its YTD loss to -10.1%.
Market mood improved on record ETF inflows, renewed corporate buying, and the kickoff of «Crypto Week» in Washington, where key legislation is being debated. Meanwhile, digital asset investment products saw another week of strong inflows totalling over $3.7bn, with YTD inflows reaching US$22.7bn.
Traditional Markets
U.S. equities posted mixed performances last week. The S&P 500 slipped -0.3%, while the Nasdaq was nearly unchanged at -0.01%, despite both indices briefly hitting fresh highs (6,290 and 22,907) midweek as tech megacaps rallied. Broader sentiment turned cautious by Friday as fiscal and geopolitical risks resurfaced.
Year-to-date:
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S&P 500: +6.4%
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Nasdaq: +7.4%
US Treasury yields climbed last week, supported by strong labor data and growing fiscal concerns following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by the US Administration.
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10-year yield rose above 4.41%
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2-year closed near 3.89%
Investors reassessed growth risks and the outlook for Fed policy. Yields continue to edge higher this week amid ongoing debate around US debt sustainability and tariffs, with markets pricing in a 52% chance of a September cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Currency & Commodities
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose last week from 96.80 to just below 97.80, supported by strong jobs data and a more tempered tone on trade negotiations from President Trump, which eased market concerns. This week, DXY is hovering near 98.6, with resistance levels seen at 100.2, while support lies near 97.8.
WTI traded around $66–69 last week, as markets weighed softer demand signals against limited supply growth. OPEC+ output rose in June but fell short of targets, while Saudi Arabia’s brief overproduction was stored, not exported. Prices remain range-bound, with seasonal factors and Middle East risks keeping sentiment cautious.
🔄 As of Tuesday, July 15
Markets are digesting hotter-than-expected June CPI data (+0.2% core), tempering Fed rate cut hopes ahead of key PPI, retail sales, and jobless claims later this week.
Q2 earnings season is also in focus, with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs leading a wave of major bank results. Key updates from Netflix, TSMC, and Johnson & Johnson are due later this week.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and ongoing developments from Washington’s “Crypto Week” remain important watchpoints for markets.
🧠 Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook
Recent Actions
Over the last month, we closed profitable long trades across select altcoins — including ONDO, ARB, and IMX. We also maintained our BTC short, partially reloading after the latest rebound.
Our current market exposure stands at 34% — including some long altcoin positions and our BTC short leg — while the remaining 66% is held in cash to stay flexible and ready to react to macro volatility, especially amid geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation risks.
Market Strategy
Macro risks remain elevated — driven by U.S. trade policy, persistent inflation, and lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East — but improving momentum and institutional flows have tempered near-term downside risks.
In this context, we maintain a selective and tactical approach, focusing on key technical levels and remaining flexible in capital allocation while monitoring the US regulatory developments and liquidity trends.
📈 Market Outlook
Over the last month, BTC has rebounded sharply after briefly pulling back towards $98,000 on June 22. A surge in ETF flows and renewed institutional interest propelled BTC to new highs above $123,000 on July 14.
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Resistance now stands at $123,350, with a potential push toward $130,000–$140,000
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Near-term support: $112,000 and $101,000
USDT dominance near 4.22% is approaching a key triple-bottom zone (4% zone) that has historically marked BTC cycle tops, while combined USDT+USDC dominance is nearing major support between 5.27% and 5.00%. These levels add confluence to the idea of an imminent peak.
🔹 BTC
BTC ended the week up +8.8%, closing near $117,500 and briefly broke a new all-time high above $123,350 on Monday. The move was supported by strong ETF demand and corporate accumulation.
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2023 performance: +155%
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2024 performance: +121%
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2025 YTD: +28%
🔹 ETH
ETH jumped +17.9% last week, closing near $2,950 on Friday, driven by renewed ETF inflows and increasing corporate adoption, with several firms – BitDigital, Sharplink Gaming, Bitmine Immersion – adding Ethereum to their treasuries in recent weeks.
The breakout above $2,900 marked a five-month high. ETH is now holding above $3,000, with:
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Resistance: $3,100 and $3,600
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Support: $2,700 and $2,080
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2023: +90%
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2024: +42%
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2025 YTD: -10.2%
🔸 Other Markets
U.S. equities posted mixed performances last week. The S&P 500 slipped -0.3%, Nasdaq nearly flat. Caution returned due to fiscal/geopolitical risks.
DXY: rose to ~97.80; currently near 98.6, with key levels at 100.2 and 97.8.
US Treasuries:
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10Y yield now around 4.49%
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2Y around 3.95%
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Yield curve no longer inverted
⚠️ Disclaimer
Cryptos Fund Trading provides execution-only services.
We do not offer financial advice or portfolio management.
All content is for informational purposes only.
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