BTC and ETH declined last week as a market-wide pullback wiped out prior monthly gains. BTC dropped -7.3% week-over-week, ending near $109,696, while ETH slid -9.8% to near $4,034. Both are still positive on the year \u2014 up +23% and +26%, respectively and investor appetite remained firm: digital asset investment products attracted $1.9bn in net inflows last week, bringing YTD totals to $40.3bn. BTC and ETH closed out September up +6% and down -4.4% respectively.<\/p>\n
U.S. Equities ended last week on a mixed note despite a rebound on Friday, supported by inflation data in line with forecasts (core PCE +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoY) and firm spending (+0.4% MoM). The S&P 500 slipped -0.3% on the week and the Nasdaq -0.7%, as quarter-end flows pressured AI-heavy stocks like Oracle and Nvidia. Both indices hit fresh record highs \u2014 6,699 and 24,781 \u2014 before settling near 6,644 and 24,503 by Friday\u2019s close. Despite the late pullback, both indices closed their fifth straight positive month \u2014 the S&P 500 gained +2.9% in September and is up +14% YTD, while the Nasdaq added +4.8% in the month and +16.4% YTD.<\/p>\n
Treasury yields inched higher into the month-end as stronger data tempered expectations for aggressive monetary easing. The 10-year ended near 4.17% and the 2-year at 3.64%, lifted by a higher Q2 GDP revision to +3.8% and lower jobless claims (218,000 vs 233,00 expected). These signs of resilience contrast with the Fed\u2019s recent pivot toward employment risks.<\/p>\n
Markets still expect another 25-bps cut in October \u2013 92% probability according to the CME Fed Watch tool, but the September jobs report could be decisive for how quickly the Fed moves thereafter.<\/p>\n
Following a low of 96.22 on Sept 17, DXY rebounded to a high of 98.6 last week as traders recalibrated Fed cut expectations amid stronger U.S. data. While DXY has softened since the Fed\u2019s first 2025 rate cut, Powell\u2019s measured tone helped slow the decline. DXY remains rangebound for now, with resistance near 98.30 (100-day MA) and 100.2, while support lies near 93.00.<\/p>\n
WTI ranged between $62 and $66 last week, easing after earlier gains driven by escalating conflict in Ukraine. The pullback followed the restart of Kurdish crude and expectations of another OPEC+ output hike in November. While supply pressures capped upside, traders remain alert to geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff pressure.<\/p>\n
Markets will kick off October focused on Friday\u2019s September jobs report, which could influence the Fed\u2019s next steps following its recent rate cut. Key data ahead include job openings (Tues), ADP jobs and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Wed), and jobless claims, factory orders (Thu), alongside remarks from Fed officials, including Jefferson, Williams, and Hammack. Earnings from Nike and Tesla\u2019s Q3 deliveries will be closely watched, while a possible U.S. government shutdown looms.<\/p>\n
Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n Recent Actions<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n We entered September in a defensive stance, holding 74%+ cash after a strong August close (9\/9 trades green).<\/p>\n Throughout the month, we maintained a selective approach. Partial profits were taken on the BTC short (DCA $117,600 \u2192 $111,800 TP), with the position now held at an adjusted average entry of $112,080. ETH’s short exposure was also trimmed following partial take-profits near $3,830.<\/p>\n On the long side, we re-entered TIA at a favorable discount, added marginally to ICP around $4, and initiated a position in HYPE in late September during market weakness. Despite the broader pullback across majors, our strategy remained anchored in capital preservation and tactical execution.<\/p>\n Book stays tactical: shorts working, longs light, cash optionality ready.<\/p>\n Market Strategy<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n BTC\u2019s reversal after its mid-August all-time high has cemented a short-term downtrend. Despite strong summer momentum, price action has weakened, with multiple failed bounces and liquidation-driven volatility. In this environment, we stay tactical and defensive with USDT dominance climbing to 4.74% in September, reinforcing our cautious view. We continue to favor opportunistic short setups, particularly on BTC, until signs of trend stabilization emerge.<\/p>\n Market Outlook<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n BTC closed September slightly higher +6%, rebounding in the final days of the month after retreating from its $124K August high. While the broader uptrend remains intact (+23% YTD), the price continues to consolidate within a well-defined channel. Near-term momentum hinges on macro drivers \u2014 notably the September jobs report and the October 29 FOMC. On the chart, the 115K\u2013118K zone marks critical resistance; a confirmed break above could open the door to fresh all-time highs. On the downside, key support levels remain $108K, $104K, and $100K\u2014 the latter being the lower bound of the current parallel blue channel.<\/p>\n BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n BTC fell -7.3% last week, bottoming near $108,652 before bouncing back and closing near 109,679 on Friday. This week, BTC moved back up to $114,500, closing September up +6%. This rebound keeps the YTD performance near +23% despite recent volatility.<\/p>\n Technically, BTC remains within a down-sloping parallel channel. Bulls must clear 115,500 and confirm above 118,000 to reopen the breakout case. Until that happens, the roadmap points toward 104K\u2013100K. If equities roll over, a deeper retracement to 93k-90k cannot be excluded before the next leg higher.<\/p>\n ETH<\/strong><\/p>\n ETH dropped -9.8% last week, ending near $4,034, and closed September down -4.4%. Price found support around the 100 MA last week ($3,800) and is currently evolving within its ascending parallel channel near $4,180. Resistance lies at $4,600, while on the downside, the $3,600 zone and the bottom end of the parallel channel near $3,160 act as supports.<\/p>\n After gaining +90% in 2023 and +41.9% in 2024, ETH remains up +26% year-to-date, supported by earlier ETF-driven momentum.<\/p>\n Other markets<\/strong><\/p>\n U.S. Equities closed September on a mixed note despite a rebound on Friday, helped by inflation figures matching forecasts (core PCE +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoY) and still-solid spending data. The S&P 500 slipped -0.3% on the week and the Nasdaq -0.7%, breaking multi-week advances as profit-taking and quarter-end rotations hit AI-heavy names like Oracle and Nvidia. Both indices touched record highs -6,699 and 24,781- earlier in the week before fading and closing near 6,644 and 24,503.<\/p>\n Despite the late pullback, both indices closed their fourth straight positive month \u2014 the S&P 500 gained +2.9% in September and is up +14% YTD, while the Nasdaq added +4.8% in the month and +16.4% YTD. Focus now turns to October\u2019s macro triggers, including payrolls and a possible government shutdown.<\/p>\n DXY<\/strong><\/p>\n Following a low of 96.22 on Sept 17, DXY rebounded to a high of 98.6 last week as traders recalibrated Fed cut expectations amid stronger U.S. data. While DXY has softened since the Fed\u2019s first 2025 rate cut, Powell\u2019s measured tone helped slow the decline.<\/p>\n Technical momentum remains negative, despite DXY retesting its 100-day moving average. DXY remains rangebound for now. Key support sits at 97.5, while resistance remains capped around 99.0. The outlook remains fragile heading into Friday\u2019s nonfarm payrolls report, which could further shape rate expectations\u2014and, by extension, the dollar\u2019s direction into October.<\/p>\n US Treasuries<\/strong><\/p>\n Treasury yields inched higher into the month-end as stronger data tempered expectations for aggressive monetary easing. The 10-year ended near 4.17% and the 2-year at 3.64%, lifted by a higher Q2 GDP revision to +3.8% and lower jobless claims (218,000 vs 233,00 expected). These signs of resilience contrast with the Fed\u2019s recent pivot toward employment risks. Markets still expect another 25 bps cut in October \u2013 92% probability according to the CME Fed Watch tool, but the September jobs report could be decisive for how quickly the Fed moves thereafter. Powell emphasized the policy stance remains \u201cmodestly restrictive\u201d but flexible in response to incoming data.<\/p>\n The 10Y yield is currently trading near 4.15% while the 2Y yield is evolving near 3.62%, confirming the end of the yield curve inversion.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n\r\n