{"id":9417,"date":"2025-09-03T20:39:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T18:39:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/?p=9417"},"modified":"2025-09-03T20:57:21","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T18:57:21","slug":"report-cft-wednesday-september-3rd-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/fr\/report-cft-wednesday-september-3rd-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Report CFT Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Report CFT Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025<\/span><\/p>\n

Market Overview<\/h3>\n

BTC and ETH<\/strong> ended the week lower amid a sharp crypto market pullback. BTC lost -7.3% week-over-week, falling below $108,000, while ETH dropped -8.1%, unable to hold its recent all-time high. Despite the correction, BTC remains up +16.5% year-to-date, and ETH is still up +34.1%.<\/p>\n

The market downturn was broad-based, with high-cap tokens like XRP, DOGE, and ADA also selling off. Meanwhile, digital asset investment products saw another week of strong inflows totalling over $2.4bn, with YTD inflows reaching US$35.5bn.<\/p>\n

U.S. Equities<\/strong> ended the week slightly lower, with the S&P 500 down -0.01% and the Nasdaq -0.2%, weighed by weakness in AI-related names such as Nvidia, Dell, and Marvell. Tech sentiment cooled after mixed earnings and renewed concerns over high valuations.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, July\u2019s core PCE inflation came in at +0.3% MoM, in line with expectations, reflecting a modest rise in price pressures. Despite Friday\u2019s pullback, both indices posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain, with the S&P 500 up +1.9% and the Nasdaq +1.58% in August.<\/p>\n

U.S. Treasury yields<\/strong> ended August mostly stable, reflecting the tug-of-war between easing inflation pressures and renewed fiscal concerns. The 10-year yield hovered near 4.23%, while the 2-year settled around 3.62% on Friday. Yields rose modestly during the week after robust July consumer spending data and ongoing inflation risks tied to tariffs, both of which added uncertainty to the Fed\u2019s policy trajectory.<\/p>\n

Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September, as signs of labor market softening grow and political pressure on Fed independence escalates. This week\u2019s macro data \u2014 including JOLTS, ADP, and the August jobs report \u2014 will be closely watched for validation of the expected easing path.<\/p>\n

\n

Dollar & Commodities<\/h3>\n

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong> closed August down -2.2%, retreating to a five-week low of 97.536 as traders positioned for potential Fed easing. Despite a brief bounce on stronger-than-expected consumer data, sentiment around the dollar has weakened in response to softer labor market indicators and growing expectations for policy cuts.<\/p>\n

WTI<\/strong> traded near $64 last week, pressured by expectations of weaker U.S. fuel demand post-summer and higher OPEC+ supply. Prices, which had briefly risen amid tensions linked to the Russia\u2013Ukraine conflict, eased on reports of potential ceasefire talks. Key watchpoints also include India\u2019s continued Russian oil purchases despite mounting U.S. tariff pressure.<\/p>\n

\n

Upcoming Events<\/h3>\n

With the Labor Day break behind, markets turn to a packed week of data and earnings. Key macro releases include:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • July job openings and the Fed\u2019s Beige Book (Wed)<\/li>\n
  • ADP employment and jobless claims (Thu)<\/li>\n
  • The main event \u2014 the August nonfarm payrolls (Fri), the first since July\u2019s downward revisions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Signs of labor market cooling could shape expectations ahead of the September 17\u201318 FOMC. On the earnings side, AI remains in focus with Salesforce (Wed) and Broadcom (Thu) reporting.<\/p>\n

    \n

    Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook<\/h2>\n

    Recent Actions<\/h3>\n

    We remained defensive entering September, with 74% in cash to preserve flexibility. August closed green with a perfect 9-for-9 trade record, including multiple gains on LINK shorts, TIA and ICP longs, and a BTC short fully closed at $108,500. Our focus remains on protecting gains while trading tactically around high-conviction levels.<\/p>\n

    Our core strategy revolves around protecting recent gains while trading actively around high-conviction levels across majors and select altcoins.<\/p>\n

    \n

    Market Strategy<\/h3>\n

    BTC set a new all-time high in mid-August but quickly reversed, ending the month lower and establishing a short-term downtrend. Despite strong momentum earlier this summer, recent price action has turned more fragile, with increasing selling pressure on key breakdowns.<\/p>\n

    In this context, we remain cautious and tactical. Stable yields, capped dollar strength, and rising USDT dominance (up to 4.61% in August) support a defensive stance. We maintain a preference for short exposure on BTC unless clear signs of trend reversal emerge.<\/p>\n

    \n

    Market Outlook<\/h3>\n

    BTC closed August down -5.8%, retreating from its August 14 all-time high of $124,547. Despite the drawdown, it remains up +16.5% YTD, reflecting broader uptrend resilience.<\/p>\n

    As September begins, attention shifts to macro catalysts \u2014 including the September 6 Non-Farm Payrolls report and the September 30 FOMC meeting \u2014 which could influence risk appetite and liquidity conditions. Unless BTC reclaims key resistance at $114K, the broader structure points toward continued consolidation or deeper retracement, with support at $108K, $104K, and $98K in play.<\/p>\n

    \n

    BTC<\/h2>\n

    BTC ended the week down -7.3%, closing near $108,380 after falling from just over a week high of $113,600 last Monday. The move extended a multi-week downtrend since the new ATH of $124,547 on Aug 14.<\/p>\n

    Intraday, BTC hit a low of $107,389 on Friday, the weakest level since early July.<\/p>\n

    After gaining +155% in 2023 and +111.8% in 2024, BTC\u2019s 2025 YTD performance stands at +16.5%, despite a -5.8% monthly decline in August.<\/p>\n

    Key support lies near $104,000, while resistance is seen around $114,000.<\/p>\n

    \n

    ETH<\/h2>\n

    ETH dropped -9.7% last week, ending near $4,360 on Friday after a volatile stretch that saw it hit a new all-time high of $4,955 on August 24. The rally faded quickly as selling pressure intensified, pushing ETH back into a descending trend and settling near $4,300.<\/p>\n

    After gaining +90% in 2023 and +41.9% in 2024, ETH remains up +34.1% year-to-date, supported by earlier ETF-driven momentum. Still, ETH closed out the month of August up +17.9%.<\/p>\n

    Key support sits at $4,200 and $3,600, with resistance near $4,650 and $4,950.<\/p>\n

    \n

    Other Markets<\/h2>\n

    U.S. Equities<\/strong> ended the week slightly lower, with the S&P 500 down -0.01% and the Nasdaq -0.2%, weighed by weakness in AI-related names such as Nvidia, Dell, and Marvell. Tech sentiment cooled after mixed earnings and renewed concerns over high valuations.<\/p>\n

    Meanwhile, July\u2019s core PCE inflation came in at +0.3% MoM, in line with expectations, reflecting a modest rise in price pressures. Despite Friday\u2019s pullback, both indices posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain, with the S&P 500 up +1.9% and the Nasdaq +1.58% in August.<\/p>\n

    \n

    DXY<\/h2>\n

    The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) closed August down -2.2%, retreating to a five-week low of 97.536 as traders positioned for potential Fed easing. Despite a brief bounce on stronger-than-expected consumer data, sentiment around the dollar has weakened in response to softer labor market indicators and growing expectations for policy cuts.<\/p>\n

    Technical momentum has also turned negative, with DXY trading below its 100- and 200-day moving averages. Key support sits at 97.5, while resistance remains capped around 99.0.<\/p>\n

    The outlook remains fragile heading into Friday\u2019s nonfarm payrolls report, which could further shape rate expectations \u2014 and, by extension, the dollar\u2019s direction into September.<\/p>\n

    \n

    US Treasuries<\/h2>\n

    U.S. Treasury yields ended August mostly stable, reflecting the tug-of-war between easing inflation pressures and renewed fiscal concerns. The 10-year yield hovered near 4.23%, while the 2-year settled around 3.62% on Friday.<\/p>\n

    Yields rose modestly during the week after robust July consumer spending data and ongoing inflation risks tied to tariffs, both of which added uncertainty to the Fed\u2019s policy trajectory.<\/p>\n

    Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in September, as signs of labor market softening grow and political pressure on Fed independence escalates. This week\u2019s macro data \u2014 including JOLTS, ADP, and the August jobs report \u2014 will be closely watched for validation of the expected easing path.<\/p>\n

    The 10Y yield is currently trading near 4.26% while the 2Y yield is evolving near 3.64%, confirming the end of the yield curve inversion.<\/p>\n

    \n\r\n
    \r\n