Date: 18 August 2025<\/p>\n
Weekly Market Outlook<\/p>\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n
\ud83e\udded Macro<\/p>\n
Markets are pausing ahead of Jackson Hole, with Powell\u2019s Friday speech likely to shape expectations around potential rate cuts. The CPI\/PPI divergence (cooler CPI, hotter PPI) has kept equities range-bound. As typical for late August, liquidity remains thin, increasing the risk of erratic moves.<\/p>\n
Bond yields remain capped around 4.40%, while the Dollar Index is attempting to base near 98. The breakout on EUR\/USD from a 15-year trendline points to slow dollar weakening \u2014 not a crash.<\/p>\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n
\u20bf Crypto<\/p>\n
BTC<\/p>\n
\u2022Local top confirmed at $124,570, invalidating the previous topping tail \u2014 now forming a double top structure.<\/p>\n
\u2022Support: April trendline has broken. Price pierced $115K (current low at writing is $114,600). Next key zones: 112K, then major support at 108K\u2013100K.<\/p>\n
\u2022\u26a0\ufe0f A confirmed break of the April trendline could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $100K.<\/p>\n
ETH<\/p>\n
\u2022Rejected last week at $4,795.<\/p>\n
\u2022Trading today near $4,222.<\/p>\n
\u2022Key support levels: $4,100, then $4,035, followed by $3,500, and the major zone around $3,150\u20133,035.<\/p>\n
\u2022Watch $4,065\u20134,075 as the first meaningful support \u2014 a break may accelerate downside.<\/p>\n
USDT.D<\/p>\n
\u2022Spiked to 4.37% this morning before U.S. market open.<\/p>\n
\u2022This bounce confirms early de-risking flows. The structure remains above the triple-bottom zone at 3.80%, which historically aligns with local BTC\/ETH tops and an altcoin slowdown.<\/p>\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcc8 Equities<\/p>\n
\u2022S&P 500 rejected at 6,449, closing Friday just below major upsloping resistance (trendline from Oct 2023). RSI continues to roll over.<\/p>\n
\u2022NASDAQ pulled back from the top of its channel \u2014 watch QQQ 364 for confirmation of weakness.<\/p>\n
\u2022Key resistance remains at 6,440\u20136,460.<\/p>\n
\u2022\u26a0\ufe0f A reminder: trendline breaks without follow-through are unreliable \u2014 the risk of fakeouts remains elevated.<\/p>\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcbc Portfolio Update<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd38 Longs (Total: 2.00%)<\/p>\n
\u2022TIA: 1.00% at $1.75 (reloaded today after two rounds of profits)<\/p>\n
\u2022ICP: 1.00% at $5.26 (reloaded after similar setup round profits taken)<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd3b Shorts (Total: 28.00%)<\/p>\n
\u2022BTC: 19.00% at $118,000 (after partial take profit at $115K)<\/p>\n
\u2022ETH: 8.00% at $3,881<\/p>\n
\u2022LINK: 1.00% at $26.20 (opened 17 Aug)<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udcb5 Cash Available: 70.00%<\/p>\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n
\ud83d\udd2d View<\/p>\n
Crypto is at pivotal levels. BTC\/ETH have broken key trendlines, but confirmation is essential. The rise in USDT.D points to risk-off flows, supporting the short thesis.<\/p>\n
Still holding elevated cash to remain flexible.<\/p>\n
This week\u2019s catalysts \u2014 retail earnings + Jackson Hole \u2014 may define the next trend.<\/p>\n
Short-term bias = cautious bearish on majors.<\/p>\n
Medium-term (Q4) remains open \u2014 confirmation needed before re-risking.<\/p>\n
\u2e3b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Date: 18 August 2025 Weekly Market Outlook \u2e3b \ud83e\udded Macro Markets are pausing ahead of Jackson Hole, with Powell\u2019s Friday speech likely to shape expectations around potential rate cuts. The CPI\/PPI divergence (cooler CPI, hotter PPI) has kept equities range-bound. As typical for late August, liquidity remains thin, increasing the risk of erratic moves. Bond […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[9,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","hentry","category-chart-analysis","category-update","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"\n