{"id":8651,"date":"2025-06-25T09:48:16","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T07:48:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/?p=8651"},"modified":"2025-06-25T09:48:16","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T07:48:16","slug":"%f0%9f%93%8a-c-ft-update-tuesday-june-24-2025-monthly-report-is-available-market-context-current-positioning-%f0%9f%91%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/fr\/%f0%9f%93%8a-c-ft-update-tuesday-june-24-2025-monthly-report-is-available-market-context-current-positioning-%f0%9f%91%89\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud83d\udcca C.FT Update \u2013 Tuesday, June 24, 2025 Monthly report is available \u2013 market context & current positioning. \ud83d\udc49"},"content":{"rendered":"

Monthly Report CFT Tuesday, June 24th,<\/span><\/span> 2025<\/span><\/span><\/b><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/span><\/b>BTC and ETH ended the week in decline amid rising geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty. BTC fell -2.6% near $103,300 on Friday while ETH saw a sharper -6.7% drop trading near $2,406. BTC hit a low of $98,240 over the weekend after U.S. strikes on Iran triggered risk-off sentiment. Still, BTC remains +7.5% YTD, and ~11% below its all-time high of $112,000 set on May 22. Market sentiment remains fragile, with crypto trading range-bound as traders navigate war headlines and central bank uncertainty. Meanwhile, digital asset investment products recorded their tenth consecutive week of inflows, totalling US$1.24bn, with YTD inflows reaching US$15.1bn.<\/span><\/p>\n

US equities ended the week on softer footing, as renewed geopolitical escalation and cautious Fed messaging weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 slipped -0.2% to 5,968, while the Nasdaq edged up +0.2% to 19,447. Markets remained range-bound ahead of news confirming US involvement in the Israel\u2013Iran conflict, while lingering inflation risks added to investor anxiety. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up +1.5% and the Nasdaq +0.7%, supported by strong earnings earlier in the quarter. Still, caution dominates as war headlines, oil prices, and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the near-term outlook.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

US Treasury yields held steady following the June FOMC meeting, with the Fed leaving rates unchanged while reaffirming its projection for two cuts later this year. However, Fed Chair Powell noted that additional hikes remain possible if tariffs push inflation higher over the summer. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a September cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, as Powell stressed data dependency amid ongoing macro uncertainty. The 10-year yield hovered around 4.38% on Friday, while the 2-year slipped to 3.91%, reflecting a market caught between inflation concerns and signs of slowing growth.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/span>The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged higher, closing near to 98.77 on Friday as safe-haven flows persisted in response to escalating Israel\u2013Iran tensions and continued Fed caution. Despite gains, the dollar remains capped by technical resistance at its 50-day MA near 99.50. A decisive breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum, especially if geopolitical instability intensifies.<\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/span>Oil prices had a volatile week, with WTI peaking near $75.70 before settling around $73.96 last Friday. Markets were on edge after the U.S. struck Iranian nuclear sites, raising fears of retaliation and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices dropped sharply on Monday\u2014WTI fell below $70\u2014after Iran\u2019s missile strike on U.S. military bases in Qatar appeared limited in scope and avoided critical energy infrastructure, easing fears of major supply disruptions. Market sentiment remains cautious, but immediate concerns over a supply shock have subsided for now.<\/span><\/p>\n

BTC and ETH are trading higher ahead of a data-packed week, with Friday\u2019s May PCE inflation report (core PCE expected at +0.1%) and Thursday\u2019s Q1 GDP revision (-0.2% expected) set to take center stage. Fed Chair Powell\u2019s testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday will also be closely watched for policy signals, amid lingering tariff concerns.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/span>Beyond macro, markets will monitor developments in the Middle East following recent escalation, while earnings from Nike, FedEx, and Micron will offer fresh insight into corporate sentiment and global trade exposure.<\/span><\/p>\n

Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Recent Actions<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In June, we closed six profitable long trades across select altcoins \u2014 including ADA, LINK, ONDO, and IMX. During the recent BTC crash, we took partial profits on our BTC short position and have now reloaded that exposure. Our current exposure to the market stands at 30%, with the remaining 70% held in cash to remain flexible and ready to adjust our exposure based on market conditions and upcoming macro catalysts, especially as geopolitical tensions, inflation risks, and broader macro uncertainty tied to the Middle East continue to weigh on markets.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/span>Market Strategy<\/b>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Macro risks remain elevated, driven by U.S. trade policy, stubborn inflation, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to fuel volatility and weigh on market sentiment. In this context, we maintain a cautious stance, favoring tactical entries and defensive positioning, while monitoring technical levels and key macro developments that could shift momentum.<\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/span>Market Outlook
\n<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

Since our last report on May 27, BTC has lost momentum amid rising geopolitical tensions and renewed inflation risks tied to the Middle East. After peaking at $112,000, it gradually pulled back to a weekend low near $98,240 and is now trading close to $105,500 with a possible retest of the $112,00 and resistance standing at $115,000 while minor support is at $96,000 with major support at $93,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

BTC<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/b><\/span><\/span>BTC ended the week down -2.6%, closing near $103,300 after briefly dipping to $98,240 over the weekend on heightened geopolitical tensions. Despite the pullback from the June 11 high of $110,500, BTC remains +7.5% YTD and ~11% below its all-time high of $112,000 set in May.<\/span><\/p>\n

BTC price is exchanging near $105,000 while resistance levels stand at $112,00 and $115,000, and short-term minor support stands at $96,000 – aligning with the 100- and 200-day MAs, with major support further below at $93,000.<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

After rounding up 2023 performance to +155% and 2024 up +121%, BTC\u2019s 2025 YTD is currently at +7.5%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

ETH<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/b><\/span><\/span>Like BTC, ETH lost ground last week, falling -6.7% to close near $2,407 amid rising Middle East tensions and increased exchange inflows. It is now consolidating around $2,450 after briefly dipping $2,115, finding support near $2,100, where its 100-day MA currently is.<\/span><\/p>\n

Resistance stands at $2,800 and $3,000, with supports at $2,080 and $1,800 further below. Despite near-term pressure, persistent ETF inflows suggest pullbacks continue to be viewed as buying opportunities rather than signals of a broader reversal.<\/span><\/p>\n

After gaining +90% in 2023 and +46% in 2024, ETH is down -31% year-to-date in 2025.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Other markets<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

US equities ended the week on softer footing, as renewed geopolitical escalation and cautious Fed messaging weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 slipped -0.2% to 5,968, while the Nasdaq edged up +0.2% to 19,447. Markets remained range-bound ahead of news confirming US involvement in the Israel\u2013Iran conflict, while lingering inflation risks added to investor anxiety. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up +1.5% and the Nasdaq +0.7%, supported by strong earnings earlier in the quarter. Still, caution dominates as war headlines, oil prices, and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the near-term outlook.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are currently trading range-bound, with the S&P 500 fluctuating between 5,900 and 6,110, facing resistance at 6,100 \u2013 6,150. The Nasdaq is following a similar pattern, trading between 19,200 and 19,800, with key resistance at 22,200 \u2013 22,500.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

After ending 2023 up +24% and +43%, and 2024 up +28% and +29%, S&P and Nasdaq\u2019s YTD performances are currently at +1.5% and +0.7%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

DXY<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged higher, closing near to 98.77 on Friday as safe-haven flows persisted in response to escalating Israel\u2013Iran tensions and continued Fed caution. Despite gains, the dollar remains capped by technical resistance at its 50-day MA near 99.50. A decisive breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum, especially if geopolitical instability intensifies. Key support for DXY sits at 97.8.<\/span><\/p>\n

US Treasuries<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

US Treasury yields held steady following the June FOMC meeting, with the Fed leaving rates unchanged while reaffirming its projection for two cuts later this year. However, Fed Chair Powell noted that additional hikes remain possible if tariffs push inflation higher over the summer. Markets are now pricing in a 70% chance of a September cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, as Powell stressed data dependency amid ongoing macro uncertainty. The 10-year yield hovered around 4.38% on Friday, while the 2-year slipped to 3.91%, reflecting a market caught between inflation concerns and signs of slowing growth.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The 10Y yield is currently trading near 4.29% while the 2Y yield is evolving near 3.80%, confirming the end of the yield curve inversion.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\r\n

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