{"id":8502,"date":"2025-05-28T08:50:58","date_gmt":"2025-05-28T06:50:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/?p=8502"},"modified":"2025-05-28T08:50:58","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T06:50:58","slug":"strategic-market-update-tuesday-27-may-2025-bitcoin-global-equities-us-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/fr\/strategic-market-update-tuesday-27-may-2025-bitcoin-global-equities-us-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategic Market Update | Tuesday 27 May 2025 | Bitcoin, Global Equities, US Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"

Weekly Report CFT Tuesday, May 27th, 2025<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC and ETH ended the week with mixed performance, as BTC extended its upward momentum, gaining +3.7% week-over-week and closing near $107,329 after setting a new all-time high at $112,000 on May 22. In contrast, ETH slipped -0.4% over the same period, underperforming despite a strong +42.9% month-to-date rebound. The rally was fuelled by encouraging progress on U.S. stablecoin and perpetuals legislation, as well as the SEC\u2019s review of the first staked TRX ETF. Record digital asset inflows brought the YTD total to $10.8 billion, while Kraken\u2019s move to tokenize major U.S. equities further supported sentiment. Although momentum briefly eased last Friday following President Trump\u2019s 50% tariff threat on EU imports, prices continued to edge higher over the extended holiday weekend.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

US equities slipped this past week, weighed down by renewed tariff threats and fiscal concerns tied to President Trump\u2019s \u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill.\u201d The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended near 5,802 and 18,737, losing -2.6% and -2.5%, respectively. Markets wavered as Trump threatened new tariffs on Apple and EU imports, pushing Treasury yields higher amid Moody\u2019s credit rating downgrade. The VIX was trading near 22 with a brief spike to 25 on Friday while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the week near 5,802 and 18,737 and remain down -1.3% and -3% year-to-date, respectively.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. Treasury yields climbed this week as Moody\u2019s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, weak demand at the 20-year bond auction, and mounting fiscal concerns regarding the US administration\u2019s tax proposal unsettled markets. The 10-year yield broke above 4.6%, reaching a high of 4.627%, while 20- and 30-year yields surged past 5.1%, marking their highest levels since November 2023. The selloff in Treasuries was accompanied by declines in both equities and the dollar, while no imminent rate cuts are expected, the Fed opting to monitor the evolving macroeconomic and fiscal backdrop. Markets are now pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut no earlier than September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained under pressure and fund support near 98 as bearish sentiment intensified following Moody\u2019s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating to Aa1. The index closed the week at 99.10 as of last Friday. Echoing last month’s price action, a decisive move below 98 could open the door to further downside, while a recovery above 100 and a break above 103 would be needed to challenge the bearish trend.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Oil prices ended the week slightly higher, with WTI hovering near $61, as mixed signals kept prices range-bound. Gains from stronger demand forecasts and ongoing sanctions on Iranian exports were offset by rising U.S. inventories and speculations over a July production output increase by OPEC+. WTI traded in a tight $60\u201364 range, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the June 1 OPEC+ meeting and the start of the U.S. summer driving season.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC and ETH are trading higher today as investors gear up for a data-heavy, holiday-shortened week, with Nvidia\u2019s earnings and the FOMC minutes due Wednesday, alongside Thursday\u2019s Q1 GDP revision (+3.7% expected), amid renewed focus on President Trump\u2019s tariffs and broader economic policy. Friday\u2019s PCE inflation report \u2014 with core PCE expected at +0.1%\u2014 should take center stage this week, along with updates on the U.S. trade balance and UoM consumer confidence. On the earnings front, results from Salesforce, Marvell, Dell, HP, and Costco will provide fresh insight into corporate health amid persistent macro and trade-related uncertainty.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Recent Actions<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Over the course of May, we closed 5 trades, all profitable – on some alt coins including TIA, IMX, DOT, and ATOM. We also opened long positions on some other alt coins \u2013 ARB, OP, TON, ICP, TIA \u2013 along with some short positions in BTC and SUI. Our current exposure to the market stands at 22.7%, with the remaining 77.3% held in cash to remain highly flexible and ready to adjust our exposure based on market conditions and upcoming macro catalysts.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Market Strategy<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Since our last report on April 28, BTC has gained upside momentum as tariff speculation eased, breaking successively above the $100,000 and $105,000 levels, and reaching a new all-time high of $112,000 on May 22. Price is now holding above key support at $105,000 and retesting the $110,000 area. Immediate resistance stands at $112,000, while a drop back to $105,000 could revive bearish pressure and open the door for a deeper pullback towards $97,700.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Market Outlook<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

As highlighted in our last report, the scenario of a sustained breakout above $95,000 materialised, opening the path for a retest of $100,000 and $108,000, ultimately pushing BTC to a new all-time high. Despite this rally, we continue to anticipate a mid-term bearish cycle through 2025.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

While the recent rebound and new ATH signal improved sentiment amid easing trade tensions, we remain cautious. Downside risks persist, tied to U.S. tariff policy, stubborn inflation, recession concerns, and geopolitical instability, particularly the Ukraine-Russia conflict. These factors continue to fuel market uncertainty and volatility.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In this environment, we maintain a defensive stance, focusing on key technical support levels and closely monitoring macroeconomic developments that could shift BTC\u2019s momentum.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC extended its rally last week, gaining +3.7% and closing near $107,329 after setting a new all-time high at $112,000 on May 22. The move was supported by progress on U.S. stablecoin and perpetuals legislation, the SEC\u2019s review of a staked TRX ETF, and surging digital asset inflows, which brought the YTD total to $10.8 billion according to CoinShares. Kraken\u2019s expansion into tokenized U.S. equities also added to sentiment. While Trump\u2019s tariff threats briefly dented momentum, BTC continued to climb over the holiday weekend.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

On the daily chart, BTC is holding above key support around $105,000 and remains in bullish territory after clearing the $100,000 level. Near-term resistance stands at $112,000, followed by $118,000. A break below $105,000 could open the door for a pullback toward $100,000, with further support at $97,000 level.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

After rounding up 2023 performance to +155% and 2024 up +121%, BTC\u2019s 2025 YTD is currently at +17.2%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

ETH<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike BTC, ETH ended the week slightly lower at $2,527, down -0.4% week-over-week, underperforming despite a strong +42.9% month-to-date rebound from its early April low near $1,385. Price action remains volatile, though sentiment has improved following Ethereum\u2019s successful Pectra upgrade.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

On the daily chart, ETH is attempting to reclaim the $3,000 psychological mark after finding support near the $2,500. Key downside levels remain at 2,200 and $1,780. In the near term, traders are watching for a potential breakout above $2,850, which could target $3,500 and possibly $3,700\u2013$3,800.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

After gaining +90% in 2023 and +46% in 2024, ETH’s year-to-date performance for 2025 currently stands at -23%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Other markets<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

US equities slipped this past week, weighed down by renewed tariff threats and fiscal concerns tied to President Trump\u2019s \u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill.\u201d The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended near 5,802 and 18,737, losing -2.6% and -2.5%, respectively. Markets wavered as Trump threatened new tariffs on Apple and EU imports, stoking volatility and pushing Treasury yields higher amid Moody\u2019s credit rating downgrade. The VIX was trading near 22 despite a spike to 25 on Friday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the week near 5,802 and 18,737 and remain down -1.3% and -3% year-to-date, respectively.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

On the daily charts, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were trending upward but ended last week on a low near 5,802 and 18,737, respectively, following the U.S. proposal of a 50% tariff on EU imports. Both indices have since initiated a recovery, with the S&P 500 moving toward 5,900 and the Nasdaq toward 19,200. The S&P 500 is currently finding support along its 200-day and 100-day moving averages near 5,770, while the 5,650 area remains a key support zone, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by support at 5,350. The Nasdaq followed a similar trajectory, facing resistance near 19,170 last week and now retesting that level.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

After ending 2023 up +24% and +43%, and 2024 up +28% and +29%, S&P and Nasdaq\u2019s YTD performances are currently -1.3% and -3%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

DXY<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The US Dollar Index (DXY) remained under pressure and fund support near 98 as bearish sentiment intensified following Moody\u2019s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating to Aa1. The index closed the week at 99.10 as of last Friday. Echoing last month’s price action, a decisive move below 98 could open the door to further downside, while a recovery above 100 and a break above 103 would be needed to challenge the bearish trend.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

US Treasuries<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. Treasury yields climbed this week as Moody\u2019s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, weak demand at the 20-year bond auction, and mounting fiscal concerns tied to President Trump\u2019s tax proposal unsettled markets. The 10-year yield broke above 4.6%, reaching a high of 4.627%, while 20- and 30-year yields surged past 5.1%, marking their highest levels since November 2023. The selloff in Treasuries was accompanied by declines in both equities and the dollar, while no imminent rate cuts are expected, the Fed opting to monitor the evolving macroeconomic and fiscal backdrop. Markets are now pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut no earlier than September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The 10Y yield is currently trading near 4.43% while the 2Y yield is evolving near 3.97%, confirming the end of the yield curve inversion.<\/p>\n

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