{"id":8296,"date":"2025-01-31T10:56:15","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T09:56:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/?p=8296"},"modified":"2025-01-31T10:56:15","modified_gmt":"2025-01-31T09:56:15","slug":"weekly-report-cft-thursday-january-30th-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/fr\/weekly-report-cft-thursday-january-30th-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Report CFT Thursday, January 30th, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

BTC and ETH have had a mixed start to 2025, with BTC up +13% in January and on track to close the month above $105,500, while ETH lags with a month-to-date decline of -7.66%. BTC has been gaining momentum amid expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment under the new U.S. administration. This week, BTC is up +0.7%, trading near $105,700, while ETH is down -1.2%, nearing around $3,250.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. equities started the week with a sharp drop, led by heavy losses in tech stocks after the release of DeepSeek\u2019s lower-cost AI model, which requires significantly less development capital than OpenAI\u2019s $10 billion investment in its most advanced models, R1 and O1. NVIDIA plunged 17% on Monday. However, markets rebounded on Tuesday, buoyed by strong Big Tech earnings and the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady, signaling a more measured stance on inflation. By Thursday, the S&P and Nasdaq closed near 6,081 and 19,691, respectively, as investors digested a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP print (+2.3% vs. +2.6% forecast), with the VIX hovering around 15.8.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. Treasury yields tumbled to their lowest levels this year as investors rushed to safe-haven bonds amid a sharp tech selloff. The 2-year and 10-year yields fell to 4.17% and 4.49%, respectively, reflecting heightened risk aversion. A weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP print (2.3% vs. 2.5% forecast) added to concerns over slowing economic momentum. Investors remain cautious following the Fed\u2019s policy decision and its cautious stance on inflation, while uncertainty lingers ahead of Trump\u2019s looming tariff deadline. Markets now price in a 47% chance of a 25bps rate cut by June 2025.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

DXY remains under scrutiny after US GDP missed expectations, with FX markets focused on upcoming US trade policy updates ahead of the Feb. 1 tariff deadline. The index struggles to reclaim the 108.00 level, with resistance at 109.30 and 110.20. Support holds at 107 though further downside could be tested. Traders also eye the potential Fed influence of Trump, which adds uncertainty to the outlook.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Oil prices remain under pressure, with WTI trading near $73, below its 200-day MA at $75. Bearish sentiment persists amid oversupply concerns from a potential US-OPEC+ supply war, weaker demand following recent US winter storms, and rising crude stockpiles (+3.46M barrels for the week). Traders are closely watching OPEC+\u2019s February 3 policy meeting and looming US tariffs on Canada and Mexico.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Stocks and cryptocurrencies showed a strong recovery this past few days as things quieted down with markets now looking forward to the remainder of this week with the release of the December PCE price index as well as earnings from ExxonMobil, and Chevron among others.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Client Update: Recent Trades & Market Outlook<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Recent Actions<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Over the course of January, we took profits on all our trades, realizing a total portfolio gain of +5% for the month so far. This week, we opened long positions on select altcoins, including ARB, OP, TON, and AVAX, when BTC retraced to $97,700 on perpetual futures. Additionally, we recently opened a short position on SUI, bringing our overall market exposure to approximately 10%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Market Strategy<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

We are closely monitoring the $105,000 pivot level, as a daily close above that trendline could trigger a push toward $108,000. On the downside, we are now considering $90,000, $80,000, and $75,000 as key levels where BTC could find major support, presenting opportunities to build larger long positions. For now, our strategy remains focused on swing trades with limited exposure, while preparing for more aggressive allocations if BTC approaches these levels in the coming weeks or months.
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Market Outlook<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC may face a more prolonged correction than initially anticipated, as we expect a mid-term bear cycle through 2025 rather than a short-term pullback. Broader market conditions\u2014 particularly a potential extended correction in equities and a persistently high interest rate environment\u2014could continue to weigh on BTC and other risk assets. Additionally, recent challenges brought by DeepSeek may disrupt institutional allocation strategies across tech, energy, and cryptocurrency sectors. Given these factors, we remain cautious in the near term while positioning for strategic re-entries at key support levels.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC is set to end January 2025 with solid gains, currently up +13% and on track to close the month above $105,500. The cryptocurrency has been gaining momentum amid expectations of a more favorable regulatory environment under the new U.S. administration. This week, BTC is up +0.7%, nearing $105,700, while total inflows for 2025 have reached $4.7 billion, according to CoinShares\u2019 Digital Asset Fund Flows report.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

On the daily chart, BTC is testing the ascending trendline, which currently acts as a pivot near $105,000. While the short-term bias still leans to the downside, a daily close above this trendline could open the door for an upside move toward the $108,000\u2013$111,000 range.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for BTC, supported by expectations of a favorable regulatory stance under Trump\u2019s administration, growing institutional adoption, and the Fed\u2019s anticipated rate-cut cycle, which could encourage a shift toward riskier assets. However, we acknowledge the increasing likelihood of a prolonged bearish cycle, which could extend for several months, with the potential consecutive red monthly candles in 2025. A slowing U.S. economy and persistent equity market weakness could further weigh on sentiment, reinforcing the need for a more cautious approach in the medium term.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

After rounding up 2023 performance to +155% and 2024 up +121%, BTC\u2019s 2025 YTD and MTD performances are currently at +13%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

ETH<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike BTC, ETH has had a more challenging start to the year, with the cryptocurrency down -2% in January as it struggles to capitalize on the momentum triggered by the new U.S. administration. Over the week, ETH is down -1.2%, currently trading near $3,250.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

ETH-based assets continue to lag behind BTC, with total inflows amounting to just $0.1 billion over the week of Jan 20-26, compared to $4 billion for BTC-based assets.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

On the daily chart, ETH has been trading within the $3,000\u2013$3,500 range and is currently testing its 100-day moving average. The $3,060 and $2,830 levels serve as key support zones, while resistance stands at $3,500 and $4,000 on the upside.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

After gaining +90% in 2023 and +46% in 2024, ETH\u2019s year-to-date (YTD) performance for 2025 currently stands at -2%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Other markets<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. equities started the week with a sharp drop, led by heavy losses in tech stocks after the release of DeepSeek\u2019s lower-cost AI model, which requires significantly less development capital than OpenAI\u2019s $10 billion investment in its most advanced models, R1 and O1. NVIDIA plunged 17% on Monday. However, markets rebounded on Tuesday, buoyed by strong Big Tech earnings and the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady, signaling a more measured stance on inflation. By Thursday, the S&P and Nasdaq closed near 6,070 and 19,680, respectively, as investors digested a weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP print (+2.3% vs. +2.6% forecast), with the VIX hovering around 15.8.<\/span><\/p>\n

After ending 2023 up +24% and +43%, and 2024 up +28% and +29%, S&P and Nasdaq\u2019s MTD performances and YTD are currently +2.6% and +1.8%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

DXY<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

DXY remains under scrutiny after US GDP missed expectations, with FX markets focused on upcoming US trade policy updates ahead of the Feb. 1 tariff deadline. The index struggles to reclaim the 108.00 level, with resistance at 109.30 and 110.20. Support holds at 107 though further downside could be tested. Traders also eye the potential Fed influence of Trump, which adds uncertainty to the outlook.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The outlook for the DXY remains strong with the start of the new presidency and looming tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which could provide momentum for the U.S. dollar. This comes despite ongoing structural bearish pressures from anticipated rate cuts heading into 2025. A \u00ab\u00a0Goldilocks\u00a0\u00bb scenario\u2014where the U.S. economy avoids a slowdown\u2014could further strengthen the dollar and help counteract these downward pressures.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

US Treasuries<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. Treasury yields tumbled to their lowest levels this year as investors rushed to safe-haven bonds amid a sharp tech selloff. The 2-year and 10-year yields fell to 4.17% and 4.49%, respectively, reflecting heightened risk aversion. A weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP print (2.3% vs. 2.5% forecast) added to concerns over slowing economic momentum. Traders remain cautious following the Fed\u2019s policy decision and its cautions stance on inflation, while uncertainty lingers ahead of Trump\u2019s looming tariff deadline. Markets now price in a 47% chance of a 25bps rate cut by June 2025.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The 10Y yield is currently trading near 4.52% while the 2Y yield is evolving near 4.21%, confirming the end of the yield curve inversion.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Schedule a call with one of our experts:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/schedule-a-call\/<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

#cryptocurrency #crypto #cryptocurrencies #cryptonews #cryptotrading #cryptocurrencynews #cryptocurrencycommunity #cryptoworld #cryptomarket #cryptos<\/p>\n

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