{"id":8247,"date":"2024-09-19T09:35:12","date_gmt":"2024-09-19T07:35:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/?p=8247"},"modified":"2024-09-19T09:35:12","modified_gmt":"2024-09-19T07:35:12","slug":"weekly-report-cft-wednesday-september-18th-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/fr\/weekly-report-cft-wednesday-september-18th-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Report CFT Wednesday, September 18th, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

BTC and ETH experienced a rebound last week, with BTC leading the crypto rally. BTC reached its highest price in September at $60,631, while ETH hit a high of $2,464. Both cryptocurrencies finished the week with gains, boosted by the latest CPI inflation report showing a 0.2% rise in August, and consumer data updates, with the index improving to 69 in September from 67.9 in August. This left the door open for a potential half-point rate cut last Friday. BTC was trading around $60,290, up 12.3% for the week, while ETH was near $2,440, up 9.8%. Year-to-date performances stand at +43% for BTC and +7% for ETH, with MTD performances in September currently at +1.7 % and -8.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, digital asset investment products saw a net inflow of $436 million, ending a period of outflows totalling $1.2 billion over the previous weeks. This brings the year-to-date total inflows to $22.1 billion, according to CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows report.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC hit a high of $61,349 during today\u2019s session as markets digest the latest Fed decision to cut the rate by 50bps, entering a new cycle of rate cuts since 2020.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

US equities also gained last week, supported by market optimism and increased bets on a larger Fed rate cut following the rise in monthly CPI inflation data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher for the week, near 5,626 and 17,683, respectively, gaining +1.0% and +6.0%. Meanwhile, the VIX index remained below the 16 range but has risen close to 17.8 this week. US Equities have started this week chopping sideways in anticipation of today\u2019s FOMC meeting where uncertainty lay on the magnitude of the rate cut from 25bps to 50bps. The S&P 500 opened higher this week, reaching a new all-time high of 5,689 before pulling back and continuing to trade sideways toward the middle of the week. S&P and Nasdaq and trading close to flat, following today\u2019s 50 bps rate cut.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Conversely, U.S. Treasury yields fell last week, with the 10-year yield reaching a low of 3.60% and the 2-year yield dropping to 3.55%, marking the end of the yield curve inversion\u2014often seen as a recession warning. The 10-year yield eventually closed at 3.63%, while the 2-year yield settled near 3.56%. Market expectations for a November rate cut have significantly increased, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 64% probability of a 25-basis point cut.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

DXY edged slightly lower, closing last Friday near 101.11. This week, the index hit a low of 100.2 before finding support and is now testing the 101-mark, with the 102-mark acting as the next resistance level. On the downside, the psychological 100-mark serves as a key level to watch.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Oil prices managed to eke out small gains last week after WTI hit a low of $65.25 on Tuesday, its lowest level since May 2023 amidst signs of slowing demand from Chinese imports, fears of a recession in the US, and OPEC+ postponing its plans to unwind voluntary production cuts until December. WTI closed last Friday at nearly $69.20 and is currently trading around that level as markets digest the latest Fed rate news.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC and ETH are trading lower today, with BTC hovering near $60,000 after hitting a low of $59,150 earlier, while ETH is nearing $2,300. While markets digest today\u2019s monetary policy rate decision to lower rates by 50 basis points, key economic data such as initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, existing home sales for August, and FedEx earnings are expected this Thursday.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Client Profits<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Over this month, we took profits on some positions we opened on some Altcoins \u2013 TRX, TIA, AVAX, and NEAR.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

We also initiated Long Positions on ETH and some Alt Coins – DOT, ATOM, ADA – in early September when BTC dipped to the $53,000 zone and opened a short position on BNB this week.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Currently, 22% of our AUM is market-exposed, with the rest held in cash to manage risk effectively.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

With the Fed now entering a new rate cut cycle since 2020 and lifting forecasts for further rate cuts this year, we believe BTC could benefit from a more accommodating financial environment, with more rate cuts anticipated as early as November. However, this momentum could be tempered by institutional selloff pressure as some institutional investors may look to book profits.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

We will continue to assess market conditions and adjust our strategy as needed to maximize returns. As previously stated, Bitcoin’s medium-term trend appears to be closely tied to monetary policy decisions and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, which could bring new initiatives and regulations.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC experienced a rebound and led the crypto rally last week as the price reached its highest price in September at $60,631. The cryptocurrency finished the week with gains, boosted by the latest CPI inflation report showing a 0.2% rise in August, and consumer data updates, with the index improving to 69 in September from 67.9 in August.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC was trading around $60,290, up 12.3% for the week, with the year-to-date performance standing at +43% for BTC though the performance in September currently shows declines of – 1.3%. Meanwhile, digital asset investment products saw a net inflow of $436 million, ending a period of outflows totalling $1.2 billion over the previous weeks. This brings the year-to-date total inflows to $22.1 billion, according to CoinShares’ Digital Asset Fund Flows report.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Today, BTC hit a high of $61,349 as markets digest the latest Fed decision to cut rates by 50bps, entering a new cycle of rate cuts since 2020.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

On the daily chart, BTC found support near $54,000 and managed to claw back to its key pivot line near $61,000 which is also where its 100-day MA lies. BTC is facing the $64,000 and $70,000 as next resistances while the $56,000 and $53,500 marks act as supports in the downside.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

BTC\u2019s 30-day Historical Volatility \u2013 HV- edged lower to around 40% this week, from 46% last week.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

After rounding up 2023 performance to +155%, BTC closed out January up +0.7%, February up +43.7% and March +16.6%, BTC closed April down -15%, May +11%, June -7%, July up +3.1%, and August is down -9%. As of September, the MTD is currently +1.7% with the YTD for 2024 being +42%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

ETH<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

ETH also gained last week, hitting a high of $2,464 and closing near $2,440, up +9.8%. Year-to-date performances stand at +7%, though the performance in September currently show a decline -8.4%, respectively.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The outlook on ETH remains bearish in our opinion as the cryptocurrency lacks momentum to confirm above the $2,500 zone and is currently confined to a range between $2,200 and $2,500.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Earlier this year, ETH saw significant gains, closing January up 0.05%, February up +46%, and March up +9.2%. However, April experienced a notable decline of -17.4%, followed by a +25% gain in May. June saw a -9% drop, July recorded a -5.8% decline and August saw a drop of -22%. As of September, ETH\u2019s month-to-date performance stands at -8.4%, while its year-to-date has now shrunk to flat.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Other markets<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

US equities also gained last week, supported by market optimism and increased bets on a larger Fed rate cut following the rise in monthly CPI inflation data. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher for the week, near 5,626 and 17,683, respectively, gaining +1.0% and +6.0%. Meanwhile, the VIX index remained below the 16 range but has risen close to 17.8 this week. US Equities have started this week chopping sideways in anticipation of today\u2019s FOMC meeting where uncertainty lay on the magnitude of the rate cut from 25bps to 50bps. The S&P 500 opened higher this week, reaching a new all-time high of 5,689 before pulling back and continuing to trade sideways toward the middle of the week. S&P and Nasdaq and trading close to flat, following today\u2019s 50 bps rate cut.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

After ending 2023 up +17% and +29.6%, S&P and Nasdaq closed out January up +1.6% and +1.0%, February up +5.2% and +6.1%, March up +3.1% and +1.2%, April down -4.2% and -4.4%, May +3.5 and +6.9%, June up +3% and +6%, July +1.1% and -0.7%, August +2% and +1%, the MTD performances for September are currently of -0.5% and -0.7% with YTD performances of +18% and +17%.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

DXY<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

DXY edged slightly lower, closing last Friday near 101.11. This week, the index hit a low of 100.2 before finding support and is now testing the 101-mark, with the 102-mark acting as the next resistance level. On the downside, the psychological 100-mark serves as a key level to watch.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Our outlook for DXY remains bearish for the remainder of the year as we expect bearish pressure to prevail as more rate cuts are likely later this year.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

US Treasuries<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Conversely, U.S. Treasury yields fell last week, with the 10-year yield reaching a low of 3.60% and the 2-year yield dropping to 3.55%, marking the end of the yield curve inversion\u2014often seen as a recession warning. The 10-year yield eventually closed at 3.63%, while the 2-year yield settled near 3.56%. Market expectations for a November rate cut have significantly increased, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 64% probability of a 25-basis point cut.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The 10Y is currently trading near 3.71% while the 2Y yield is evolving near 3.63%, marking the end of the yield curve inversion.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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