{"id":7986,"date":"2023-10-10T11:24:22","date_gmt":"2023-10-10T09:24:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/?p=7986"},"modified":"2023-10-10T11:24:22","modified_gmt":"2023-10-10T09:24:22","slug":"weekly-report-cft-monday-9-october-2023-bitcoin-stocks-dollar-new-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptosfundtrading.com\/fr\/weekly-report-cft-monday-9-october-2023-bitcoin-stocks-dollar-new-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Report CFT – Monday 9, October 2023 \u2013 Bitcoin | Stocks | $ Dollar New Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

LAST WEEK <\/strong>BTC and ETH started off October mixed as markets assessed the latest job market reports and kept an eye on SBF\u2019s trial debut this past week. The two cryptocurrencies were trading near $27,950 and $1,645 on Friday, BTC notched +3.8% while ETH shed -1.3% over the week.<\/p>\n

US Equities closed out the week with S&P and Nasdaq registering +0.5% and +1.6% gains as markets reversed earlier losses following stronger-than-expected but mixed September NFP data: US hiring rose with +336,000 jobs created but at slowing wage growth, supporting the idea of a rate pause. S&P and Nasdaq closed on Friday near 4,308 and 13,431, respectively up +0.5% and +1.6% with S&P snapping four straight weeks of losses.<\/p>\n

US Treasury yields climbed higher for another week with the robust US hires. There is still a strong expectation that rates will remain unchanged in November as markets are currently pricing in an 88% chance of no rate hike during the November FOMC meeting and a 74% chance of no rate hike in December, according to CME’s FedWatchTool.<\/p>\n

DXY edged moderately lower this week despite hitting a high of 107.34 on Tuesday. The momentum lost steam in the latter sessions of the week, leaving the index to close near 106.10 on Friday from 106.17 the week before. Oil prices slipped last week as Russia lifted its ban on most of its diesel exports. The WTI suffered its steepest weekly losses since March 2023, ending the week near $82.74 on Friday from $90.71 the week before.<\/p>\n

Oil price is regaining slightly today amidst concerns over the attack on Israel by Palestinian militants as the conflict sits in a wider key oil-producing region, the WTI currently exchanging near $86.<\/p>\n

BTC and ETH are retracing today as markets closely watch the evolution around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and shift their focus to this week\u2019s major economic data with Wednesday\u2019s PPI and Thursday\u2019s CPI inflation numbers for September as well as Friday\u2019s preliminary update on consumer sentiment. Investors will also keep an eye on Fed Gov. Jefferson’s allocution and follow the kickoff of the earnings season with Financials Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo set to report among others.<\/p>\n

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CLIENT PROFITS<\/strong><\/p>\n

We took profits on some of our long positions – MATIC- and added to our existing long positions in BTC when BTC neared $27,800.<\/p>\n

The exposure to the market is 15% of the $AUM, the rest being in cash.<\/p>\n

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BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n

BTC started off October with gains as markets assessed the latest job market reports and kept an eye on SBF\u2019s trial debut this past week. The cryptocurrency was trading near $27,950 on Friday, notching +3.8% over the week.<\/p>\n

BTC hovered just below $28,000 over the weekend and is slipping today as tensions grew around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with a low near $27,280 during today\u2019s session. BTC is now settling near the $27,600.<\/p>\n

We remain bullish on the very long term but remain bearish on the medium term. Bitcoin hit a 2023 high near $31,818 on July 13 but has struggled to reclaim its $30,000 level since July 23 and is now trading close to the $27,600 level with major supports near $24,800, $22,500, and $20,000 further below.<\/p>\n

Besides the approval of spot ETF applications now postponed to early 2024 by the SEC, another variable to take into account could be the evolving situation between Israel and Palestine, which may jolt markets in the coming days. While safe havens like Gold and the U.S. dollar are likely to benefit from a bullish pump, Equities could face headwinds. In that respect, BTC\u2019s case will be interesting to monitor as the asset\u2019s correlation with Equities remains ambiguous during geopolitical crises, as observed during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the very short term, BTC could pop up the same way it did in March 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine conflict hatched, with potential targets at $29,000 and possibly $30,000.<\/p>\n

BTC\u2019s 30-day Historical Volatility \u2013 HV- steadied around 25% this week, in line with last week\u2019s level.<\/p>\n

After ending June up +11.9%, July down -4.1%, and August down -11.3%, BTC ended September up +4.0%. BTC\u2019s performance for October is of +2.4% currently with the YTD performance for 2023 now of +66.9% – from 68.1% the week before.<\/p>\n

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ETH<\/strong><\/p>\n

Unlike BTC, ETH started off October with losses. The cryptocurrency was trading near $1,645 on Friday, shedding -1.3% over the week in the wake of the timid debuts of futures-based ETH ETFs at the CBOE and the release of robust job market data.<\/p>\n

Like BTC, with growing concerns over the Palestinian-Israeli conflict hatching over the weekend, ETH\u2019s price took a downturn and fell during today\u2019s session to settle near $1,580 with $1,370 and $1,100 further below acting as main supports. As mentioned in our previous reports the 200-day MA – near $1,800 currently – is a strong indicator of the overall trend, ETH confirming well below that level could put more downward pressure and fuel a move to the downside.<\/p>\n

After ending June up +3.2%, and the month of July down -4%, August down -11.3%, ETH ended the month of September up +1.5% and the performance for October is down, currently -5.5%, and the YTD performance for 2023 now of +32% – from+39.3% the week before.<\/p>\n

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OTHER MARKETS<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Equities closed out the week with S&P and Nasdaq registering +0.5% and +1.6% gains as markets reversed earlier losses following stronger-than-expected September NFP data: US hiring rose with +336,000 jobs created but at slowing wage growth, supporting the idea of a rate pause.<\/p>\n

S&P and Nasdaq wrapped up the week near 4,308 and 13,431, respectively up +0.5% and +1.6%. S&P neared its 200-day MA – currently around 4,210 – before bouncing back and confirming above 4,250, thus snapping four straight weeks of losses. S&P and Nasdaq ended the month of September down -6.6% and -5.8%. The performances for October are currently +1.1% and +2.0% and the YTD performances are +12.9% and +28.8% – from +11.7% and +27.1% respectively as of last Monday.<\/p>\n

As mentioned in our previous reports, the comparison between the rallying US Equities and the contracting Monetary supply M2 could have put in perspective the timing of a possible correction in stock markets considering the divergence currently occurring in 2023 as we can see in the graphs below. The divergence observed over the past weeks seems to have reduced with Stocks correcting this past month of August and September.<\/p>\n

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DXY<\/strong><\/p>\n

DXY edged moderately lower this week despite hitting a high of 107.34 on Tuesday. The momentum lost steam in the latter sessions of the week, leaving the index to close near 106.10 on Friday from 106.17 the week before.<\/p>\n

DXY is currently steady near 106.07, confirming above the 105.7 level and its 200-day MA – near 103.1 currently – acting as support and below, the 102 and 100.7 levels, before the 100- mark that could act as a psychological level before the 200-week ie 1000-Day MA further below currently near 98.5. On the upside the 109-mark acts as nearest resistance. The index is expected to remain volatile with new geopolitical risks looming and as central banks could adjust their policies later in the year.<\/p>\n

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US TREASURIES<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Treasury yields climbed higher for another week with the robust US hires for September. There is still a strong expectation that rates will remain unchanged in November as markets are currently pricing in an 88% chance of no rate hike during the November FOMC meeting and a 74% chance of no rate hike in December, according to CME’s FedWatchTool.<\/p>\n

The 10Y yield and the policy-sensitive 2Y yield are currently exchanging near 4.64% and 4.93% from 4.69% and 5.11% last Monday, reducing the inversion of the yield curve to 29 bps, from 42 bps last week. The reduction of the inverted 2yr -10yr curve is reflecting the recent hawkish \u201chigher rates for longer\u201d stance expressed during the last FOMC meeting as well as the rush to safe heavens following the Israel-Palestine conflict resurgence.<\/p>\n

Lastly, on the monthly timeframe, we can notice the shaping of a potential topping tail which could signal a possible bearish reversal.<\/p>\n\r\n

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