BTC and ETH were little changed last week, with BTC hovering around the $27,000 mark. The two cryptocurrencies were trading near $26,800 and $1,810 on Friday, both up +0.3% as markets monitored the developments around the US debt ceiling negotiations and digested the latest economic data with Retail Sales for April rising +0.4% although falling short of expectations – +0.8%.<\/p>\n
US Equities gained over last week as the strong corporate earnings from the Tech sectors prevailed over the US default risk concerns. The S&P and Nasdaq ended the week near 4,192 and 12,658, up +1.6% and +3.0% from their level a week ago.<\/p>\n
Client Profits<\/p>\n
No changes were made last week.<\/p>\n
We kept our short positions on BTC and ETH, with our last short positions opening when BTC and ETH neared the $30,100 and $2,010 levels, which currently represent strong unrealized profits.<\/p>\n
The exposure to the market is still 12% of the AUM, the rest being in cash.<\/p>\n
BTC<\/p>\n
BTC printed some moderate gains last week. Hovering around the $27,000 mark, BTC was trading near $26,800 on Friday, up +0.3% as markets monitored the developments around the US debt ceiling negotiations and digested the latest economic data with Retail Sales for April rising +0.4% although falling short of expectations – +0.8%.<\/p>\n
BTC\u2019s 30-day Historical Volatility \u2013 HV- retraced and is now nearing 32%, from 42% a week ago.<\/p>\n
BTC remained steady over last week, hitting a high of $27,660 during Tuesday\u2019s session before settling near $27,000<\/p>\n
BTC\u2019s performance for May is down -8%. with the YTD performance for 2023 being +62%.<\/p>\n
BTC is little changed today, edging moderately higher near $26,910 and almost testing the $27,000 zone. Price action is still evolving within our ascending parallel channel with the nearest support close to $26,100 \u2013 the lower band of our parallel channel currently- and major supports near $25,000, $24,000, and $21,900 further below. As an indication, if BTC manages to break above the $28,700 mark, we may see its price heading toward $30,000 and above \u2013 which is unlikely in our opinion.<\/p>\n
ETH<\/p>\n
Like BTC, ETH notched a +0.3% gain over the week, trading near $1,810 on Friday. Most of the price action for the week remained near the $1,800 mark, with ETH reaching above $1,845 last Tuesday before settling back toward the $1,810 level on Friday.<\/p>\n
ETH is gaining today, trading near $1,820 and still testing the $1,800 support with next supports near $1,700 and major support near $1,500 further below. On the upside, our upward-sloping trendline acts as the next resistance near $1,880 currently.<\/p>\n
The MTD performance for May is now of -3.4% and the YTD performance for 2023 of +52%.<\/p>\n
Other Markets<\/p>\n
US Equities gained over last week as the strong corporate earnings from the Tech sectors prevailed over the US default risk concerns. The S&P and Nasdaq ended the week near 4,192 and 12,658, up +1.6% and +3.0% from their level a week ago.<\/p>\n
S&P and Nasdaq\u2019s MTD performances for May are now both in positive territory with +0.7% and +4.2% and the YTD performances +9.4% and +21.7% respectively.<\/p>\n
DXY<\/p>\n
DXY gained last week, ending the week near 103.2 from 102.7 the week before, following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and debt ceiling negotiations.<\/p>\n
The index is currently up, trading near 103.2, above our upward-sloping trendline acting as the nearest support and near 103 currently, and a major support near 101 further below. On the upside, the 105.5 mark acts as major resistance \u2013 also where the 200 MA is.<\/p>\n
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US Treasuries<\/p>\n
Like DXY, US Treasuries rose with the US 10Y yield reaching its highest level in over 2 weeks near 3.72% as markets monitored the debt ceiling negotiations, in the wake of the hawkish comments from Fed officials P. Jefferson and J. Bullard defending the US central bank\u2019s current monetary policy in its fight against inflation.<\/p>\n
The yields on the 10Y and 2Y Treasury notes closed near 3.68% and 4.27% on Friday- from 3.47% and 3.99% the week before.<\/p>\n
The 10Y yield and the policy-sensitive 2Y are currently edging higher slightly, exchanging near 3.72% and 4.32% from 3.50% and 4% last Monday, extending the inversion of the yield curve to 60bps \u2013 49 bps last week.<\/p>\n\r\n