LAST WEEK, BTC and ETH soared last week, with BTC bouncing back from the $25,000 support and rallying to a one-year-high above the $31,500 mark – on the futures market. The two cryptocurrencies were trading near $30,700 and $1,900 on Friday, up +16.6% and +10.3% with cryptos benefitting mainly from the momentum ignited by the news that Blackrock would be filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
In contrast, US Equities lost some ground as June Composite and Manufacturing PMI indices respectively came out lower than expected – 53 VS 54.4 expected – and reached a 6-month low- 46.3 from 48.4 in May, adding anxiety to a market sentiment already dampened by J. Powell’s hawkish comments reiterating that further rates hike to tame inflation may be needed in 2023. The S&P and Nasdaq were closing near 4,348 and 13,492, both down -1.4% over the past week.
US treasuries declined last week as investors digested the latest weekly job data coming out higher than expected at 264,000 and the above-mentioned disappointing PMI data. The yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries were trading near 3.74% and 4.75% from 3.77% and 4.72% the week before. DXY edged higher last week closing near 102.87 on Friday from 102.3 the week before. Oil price dropped last week as a stronger US dollar added pressure on prices and as the timing of the 25bps rate hike from the ECB and the disappointing European data flagged the risk of an economic slowdown – PMI in the eurozone falling to 50.3 from 52.8.
BTC and ETH are edging lower today as markets look ahead to this week’s fresh economic data with Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence, Wednesday’s Fed’s 2023 bank stress tests, Thursday’s Q1 US GDP data and Nike’s Q1 result as well as Friday’s PCE data and Consumer sentiment index for May set to take center stage. Markets will also keep an eye on Wednesday and Thursday’s J. Powell’s speech for further guidance as to where interest rates could go for the remainder of the year.
CLIENTS PROFITS
We closed our position on SOL to lock the gains made on this trade.
We reopened a short position on ETH when ETH neared the $1,900 mark.
We added to our short position on BTC through our DCA approach when BTC regained the $31,000.
We still have our long positions on some large caps – ADA, MATIC – that we opened when BTC dipped below $26,000, and a second time through DCA when Alt coins tumbled in early June.
The exposure to the market is now 27% of the AUM, the rest being in cash.
BTC
BTC soared last week, bouncing back from the $25,000 support and rallying to a one-year high above the $31,500 mark on the futures market. BTC was trading near $30,700 on Friday, up +16.6% with cryptos benefitting mainly from the momentum ignited by the news that Blackrock would be filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
BTC surged during Tuesday and Wednesday’s sessions, printing daily performances above 5% and piercing above our upward-sloping trendline near $28,800 to settle above the $30,000 for the rest of the week and over the weekend.
BTC is currently trading near $30,200 with major supports near $25,000 and $24,000 further below.
BTC’s performance for June is up +10.9% – from -1.9% last week- with the YTD performance for 2023 being +83%.
ETH
Like BTC, ETH rallied last week, surpassing $1,930 before settling near $1,900 on Friday, up +10.3% over the week.
ETH is now evolving near $1,850, confirming above its MA50 near $1,820, with the 200 MA acting as a major support currently near $1,660. The 200 MA is a strong indicator of the overall trend, if ETH breached below that level, the price could move downwards towards its next support near $1,700 and $1,370 further below.
ETH’s MTD performance for June is currently -1.3%, with the YTD performance being +55% – from +45% as of last week.
OTHER MARKETS
US Equities lost some ground as June Composite and Manufacturing PMI indices respectively came out lower than expected – 53 VS 54.4 expected – and reached a 6-month low – 46.3 from 48.4 in May, adding anxiety to a market sentiment already dampened by J. Powell’s hawkish comments reiterating that further rates hike to tame inflation may be needed in 2023. The S&P and Nasdaq were closing near 4,348 and 13,493, both down -1.4% over the past week, and S&P broke its 5-week streak of positive weekly gains.
S&P and Nasdaq’s MTD performance for the month of June are currently +3.6% and +3.1% and the YTD performances are +12.7% and +27.4% respectively.
DXY
DXY edged higher last week closing near 102.87 on Friday from 102.3 the week before.
The index found support near the 102 mark and breached the 103 mark on Friday before settling below at the close.
The index is currently trading near 102.8, just above its 50MA near 102.6 and above the 102- mark acting as the nearest support with 101 further below. On the upside, the 105.3-mark acts as major resistance –where the 200 MA is.
US TREASURIES
US treasuries declined last week as investors readjusted their interest rate outlook following the latest weekly job data coming out higher than expected at 264,000 and the above-mentioned disappointing PMI data. The yields on the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries were trading near 3.74% and 4.75% from 3.77% and 4.72% the week before.
The 10Y yield and the policy-sensitive 2Y are currently exchanging near 4.71% and 4.73% from 3.82% and 4.76% last Monday, maintaining the inversion of the yield curve to 94bps.