BTC and ETH fell last week, with BTC and ETH trading last Friday near $22,360 and $1,570, down -2.8% and -2.5% with most of the drop stemming from Friday’s session – BTC dropping to $21,883 – as investors weighed the latest financial hurdles at Silvergate Capital and assessed the potential aftermaths for the broader crypto industry.
US Equities gained, with S&P and Nasdaq closing near 4,045 and 11,689, up +1.9% and +1.0% as investors weigh the possibility of a slower rate hike with ISM manufacturing index shrinking in February – 47.7 from Jan to Feb.
US Treasuries continued to edge higher last week, with the 10Y and 2Y closing near 3.96% and 4.86% on Friday, from 3.95% and 4.82% the week before, extending the inversion of the yield curve a bit further – 90 bps difference vs 87bps last week. DXY declined moderately closing near 104.53 – from 105.26 the week before – and Oil price rallied with the WTI closing near $80 on Friday – from $76 the week before – after China’s factory output beat forecasts and the UAE denied their intentions to leave OPEC as earlier feared.
Cryptos and Equities are trading flat today as investors await Powell’s testimony and the latest labor-market data. More specifically this week, investors will turn their focus to Wednesday’s ADP National employment report as well as Friday’s Nonfarm payrolls report for the month of February, which could help assess the strength of the economy and give clues on whether it can handle further rate hikes. Markets will also keep a close eye on Fed Chair J. Powell’s testimony on monetary policy to the Senate and the House occurring this Tuesday and Wednesday.
Client Profits
We took profits on our AVAX positions, realizing a 25% gain. We also reduced our long BTC exposure.
We still have our short positions in SOL and ETH.
The exposure to the market is now of 16%, the rest being in cash.
BTC
BTC lost some ground last week, down -2.8% over the week on Friday, with most of the drop stemming from Friday’s session – BTC dropping to $21,883 – as investors weighed the latest financial hurdles at Silvergate Capital and assessed the potential aftermaths for the broader crypto industry.
BTC’s 30-day Historical Volatility – HV- remains above the 50% mark, pretty much in line with its level from a week ago.
BTC closed the month of February slightly down, -0.01%. Price action was relatively flat over the weekend, testing the lower band of our ascending parallel channel near the $22,300 mark. Price is now near $22,400, bringing the MTD performance for March to -3.2% and the YTD performance for 2023 to +35.4%.
On the upside, the $24,500 region still acts as resistance while the next support to watch on the downside is the upsloping support of the parallel channel, near the $22,300 level – where BTC is currently at – and then the ATH from Dec 2017 just under $20,000 and major support near $18,350 further below.
ETH
Like BTC, ETH fell last week, near $1,570 on Friday, down -2.5% over the week from its $1,610 level the week before and ended February with a performance of +1.2% over the month.
Most of the loss came during last Friday’s session when ETH price fell -4.75% and price action broke below the lower band of the ascending parallel channel near $1,600 as investors weighed the latest financial hurdles at Silvergate Capital and assessed the potential aftermaths for the broader crypto industry.
ETH is trading flat today, near $1,565, bringing the YTD performance to +30.7% and the MTD for March to -2.55%.
Price action is now evolving below our ascending parallel channel with the $1,610 and $1,780 levels acting as resistances and above our upward-sloping trendline acting as minor support, currently near $1,520 with major support near $1,350.
Other markets
US Equities gained last week, with S&P and Nasdaq closing near 4,045 and 11,689, up +1.9% and +1.0% with ISM manufacturing index in February coming at 47.7 – from Jan to Feb.
S&P and Nasdaq price actions started last week edging lower, towards their respective 200 MA level – near 3,940 and 11,400 – but rebounded on Thursday and Friday.
S&P and Nasdaq closed the monthly performance for February down -1.2% and -1.1% and are trading close to flat today, near 4,050 and 11,675, bringing the MTD performance for March to +2.0% and +1.8% and the YTD performance to +5.5% and +11.5% respectively.
DXY
DXY declined moderately, down -0.7% and closing near 104.53 – from 105.26 the week before. Price action remains steady over the week and is now edging lower near 104.3, consolidating above the 103.5 support and below its MA 200 acting as the next resistance – currently at 106.5.
US Treasuries
US Treasuries continued on their consecutive streak of weekly gains with the 10Y yield hitting 4% last Wednesday as markets sold government debt in anticipation of a longer period of higher interest rates than expected with the ISM for February rising to 47.7 and optimism from purchasing managers.
The 10Y yield is now gaining slightly, trading near 3.97%, and the 2Y yield is at 4.89%.